Part 2 (1/2)

For example, if you live together before you get engaged and married, it makes it more likely you'll get divorced. That's a big cost. It is a dumb thing to do, statistically. But people believe that they can improve their odds if they live together first. So some of the myths today about the risks of marriage lead to the very behaviors that decrease the odds of a marriage succeeding.

We do need to give people hope about marriage. The sense that they can do things to give them a future. The sense that they're going to make it. Marriage is an investment, and you want to know it has a future to invest in it.40 While I may take issue with various projections, the conclusion is universal: there is a great need for hope. Realizing the truth that divorce is not inevitable, that true hope is there, and that their marriages will probably last a lifetime gives struggling couples a vision for the future. Look at this comment from one woman who went through fire in her marriage and came out the other side: I have heard so many people over the years saying that the divorce rate in America is 50 percent. It's debilitating, and it turns out it's not even true. You can't listen to that. Instead, you need to a.s.sume your marriage will last.

One of the thoughts that helped me to make it through my first pregnancy, fighting the fear of the coming pain that everyone tells you is the worst pain ever, was the thought that Millions and millions of women over the centuries have successfully given birth, so I can do this too!

It is the same principle in considering making one's marriage last-If so many others have succeeded, I'll keep trying and I will probably also succeed!

What a difference it makes to reveal the a.s.sumptions of inevitability and futility for the lies they are, and know the good-news truth instead!

Summary * The current divorce rate is nowhere near 50 percent and has never been close to the 50 percent mark. Instead, the vast majority of marriages last a lifetime.

* According to the most recent authoritative data (2009 Census Bureau), 72 percent of people are still married to their first spouse. And of those who aren't, many were married for years until a spouse died. Based on various factors, we can estimate that perhaps 20 to 25 percent of first marriages have ended in divorce.

* Looking at all marriages (including second and third marriages) among women, just 30.8 percent have ended in divorce (2009 Census Bureau).

* The divorce rate has been declining, dropping 32 percent since its peak. According to other census data, the number of divorces per one thousand adults (the crude divorce rate) peaked in 1981 at 5.3 and has fallen to 3.6 as of 2011.

* Many factors dramatically affect the chances of divorce. Those who marry young (teens and young twenties), who don't go to college, who live together before marriage, and/or who do not attend religious services together have a higher risk of divorce. Those who get married in their midtwenties or later, go to college, don't cohabit first, and/or wors.h.i.+p together could realistically have a 5 to 10 percent divorce rate.

* Top experts continue to project divorce rates of 40 to 50 percent, but these are future projections based on various a.s.sumptions, and we've never come close to that high of an overall divorce rate.

Good News #1 The vast majority of marriages last a lifetime; the current divorce rate has never been close to 50 percent-it is closer to 20 to 25 percent for first-time marriages and 31 percent for all marriages-and has been declining for years.

3.

Why Most Marriages Are Happy, Not Hard

Not long ago, before speaking at an event at a well-known private university, I asked for a quick meeting with the university executive who had arranged for me to come in. This man is a leader in higher education, plus he and his wife are very involved in the marriage arena and speak regularly at large marriage conferences.

I wanted to share the good news about marriage I was finding and get their feedback and input. So we sat in a student cafeteria for a few minutes, and I began outlining the five truths in this book that counter the different myths people believe about marriage. But when I got to the subject of this chapter, instead of simply telling them what I was seeing, I decided to demonstrate.

I said, ”Wait a second and I'll show you something.”

I walked over to two graduate students at the cafe table next to us and apologized for interrupting but explained that I was a social researcher and I had a random question for them: ”What percentage of couples do you think are happy in their marriage today? Not perfect, but not just so-so roommates either. What percent do you think are happy?”

Both twenty-something women laughed a little bit, and one said, ”I'd say about 30 to 40 percent” (which is about what I usually hear). The other one said, ”No, I don't think it is that high. With everything we hear, I'd say more like 15 percent.”

I told them, ”Would you believe it is around 80 percent? Lots of surveys have found a little lower or little higher, but the average is probably around 80 percent.”

They, of course, were stunned. And encouraged. ”Wow! That is amazing.” ”That's really great to know, actually!”

I walked back over to the university executive and his wife and noticed that they looked surprised, even fl.u.s.tered. I sat back down across from them, and they just stared at me for a moment.

The husband finally said, ”Wow.”

The wife shook her head. ”That was amazing. That really opened my eyes. And you made your point-very effectively, by the way!”

The husband said, ”I'm having a hard time processing what I just saw and heard. This changes everything regarding how we should talk about marriage and divorce at our marriage conferences. We are so focused on emphasizing how marriage is in trouble to motivate people to not be one of the statistics. But I can see that it might demoralize them instead. And if most marriages are happy, that may mean that many of the couples at the conference are doing well and are there for inspiration or equipping because they want to keep doing well.” He paused. ”I'm really going to have to think about what this means.”

The Truth About Happiness in Marriage

I have seen that type of response more times than I can count from average people on the street and from those who work with married couples. Although I hear a variety of opinions, of course, most people think about one-third of couples are happy in their marriages. Even more telling, it is quite rare that someone will guess a number higher than 50 percent. For every twenty people I ask, I might hear two or three who believe happy couples are in the majority.

Most married people today enjoy being married to their spouse and, given the chance, would do it all over again.

I certainly used to have the same impression, so I was stunned when I started to realize the truth was very different. It turns out most married people today enjoy being married to their spouse and, given the chance, would do it all over again. And the numbers are even better in certain demographic groups. Our research also found much good news even for those couples who, right now, are unhappy and struggling.

Let's look at three of these truths in more detail.

Truth 1: Around 80 Percent of Marriages Are Happy

There are so many studies about marital satisfaction (including one of my own) that it was impossible for Tally and me to investigate them all. But as far as we can tell, they have all found similar things: the vast majority of couples are happy in their marriages. Yes, clearly, sometimes trouble comes, and when it does, the happiness numbers can change very quickly. But thankfully, for the majority, the ups and downs seem to mostly keep couples in an overall happy place.

To show you the overwhelming evidence for this, let me first describe my own study, and then I'll list several others.