Part 5 (1/2)

[Addressed to Penr[h]yn Arms, Bangor, North Wales.]

LONDON, _26 June, 1814_.

MY DEAR SIR,

... I cannot partake of your doubts respecting the effects of restrictions on the importation of corn in tending to lower the rate of interest. The rise of the price or rather the value of corn without any augmentation of capital must necessarily diminish the demand for other things even if the prices of those commodities did not rise with the price of corn, which they would (tho' slowly) certainly do. With the same capital there would be less production and less demand. Demand has no other limits but the want of power of paying for the commodities demanded. Everything which tends to diminish production tends to diminish this power. The rate of profits and of interest must depend on the proportion of production to the consumption necessary to such production,--this again essentially depends upon the cheapness of provisions, which is after all, whatever intervals we may be willing to allow, the great regulator of the wages of labour. Nothing can tend more effectually to diminish the demand abroad for our manufactures than to refuse to import corn and other commodities which we [had] usually taken in exchange for such manufactures. If we rigorously refused to import any [foreign] commodity whatever, I firmly believe that we should soon cease to export any commodity, even if we made gold an exception to the general rule. Our money would stand at a higher level than in other countries, but there are limits beyond which it could not go. All trade is at last a trade of barter, and no nation will long buy unless it can also sell,--nor will it long sell if it will not also buy. If by adopting such policy [_sic_] a country were to enhance the value of the raw materials which it consumed, of which corn is the princ.i.p.al, it would thereby lower the rate of interest. If otherwise, it might be deprived of many luxuries and many comforts, or might enjoy them in less abundance, but the rate of interest would not fall. This is a repet.i.tion, you will say, of the old story, and I might have spared you the trouble of reading at 200 miles distance what I had so often stated to you as my opinion before; but you have set me off, and must now abide the consequences. I never was more convinced of any proposition in Political Economy than that restrictions on importation of corn in an importing country have a tendency to lower profits. Remember me kindly to Mrs. Malthus.

Yours very truly, DAVID RICARDO.

XVI.

GATCOMB PARK, NEAR MINCHIN HAMPTON, GLOUCESTERs.h.i.+RE, _25th July, 1814_.

MY DEAR SIR,

I am writing to you from Gatcomb, where I arrived with S---- as my companion yesterday afternoon. To enable me to quit London at the time I did I was obliged to bestow an unusual degree of attention to business of all sorts, and, though I had written a letter to you in answer to your last before I left Brook Street, I was so dissatisfied with it that I could not resolve to send it. I shall, I fear, succeed no better now, but you shall have it whatever it may be, as, if I defer writing any longer, you may have quitted Bangor before my letter arrives there[61].

It appears to me that you have changed the proposition on which we first appeared to differ. The proposition advanced by you, if I recollect right, was that restrictions on the importation of corn would not lower the rate of profits and interest, but now you add--or rather your argument leads to that conclusion,--'if the consequence of such restriction be a great reduction of capital.' So amended I should not object to the proposition,--but I think it material that causes should be kept distinct, and their due effects ascribed to each. Restrictions on the trade of corn, if capital suffers no diminution, will occasion a fall in the rate of profits and interest. A reduction of capital independently of restrictions on importation of corn will have a tendency to raise profits and interest,--but there is no necessary connection between these two operating causes, as they may at the same time be acting together or entirely in opposite directions. Effective demand, it appears to me, cannot augment or long continue stationary with a diminis.h.i.+ng capital; and your question why if this were true profits rise at the commencement of a war? does not, I think, bear any connection with the argument, because profits will augment under a diminution of capital and produce, if demand though diminished does not diminish so rapidly as capital and produce. For the opposite reason profits will diminish when capital and produce increase. This is totally independent of the rate of production, and often, I think, may counteract the effects which usually follow, and in the long run will almost always follow, from increasing or diminis.h.i.+ng capital. You say that 'the proportion of production to the consumption necessary to such production seems to be determined by the quant.i.ty of acc.u.mulated capital compared with the demand for the products of capital, and not by the mere difficulty and expense of procuring corn.' It appears to me that the difficulty and expense[62] of procuring corn will necessarily regulate the demand for the products of capital, for the demand must essentially depend on the price at which they can be afforded, and the prices of all commodities must increase if the price of corn be increased. The capitalist 'who may find it necessary to employ a hundred days' labour instead of fifty in order to produce a certain quant.i.ty of corn' cannot retain the same share for himself unless the labourers who are employed for a hundred days will be satisfied with the same quant.i.ty of corn for their subsistence that the labourers employed for fifty had before. If you suppose the price of corn doubled, the capital to be employed, estimated in money, will probably be also nearly doubled,--or at any rate will be greatly augmented; and, if his monied income is to arise from the sale of the corn which remains to him after defraying the charges of production, how is it possible to conceive that the rate of his profits will not be diminished? I hope you continue to enjoy yourself amidst the wild scenery with which you are encompa.s.sed.--The weather here is delightful, and I am as happy as I can be, separated from the whole family (except S----) and surrounded by upholsterers, carpenters, etc....

Yours very truly, DAVID RICARDO.

I believe that in this sweet place I shall not sigh after the Stock Exchange and its enjoyments.

XVII.

GATCOMB PARK, _11 Aug., 1814_.

MY DEAR SIR,

I received your letter last Sunday, and in the evening of that day Mrs.

Ricardo and the rest of my family arrived here. I have been showing them all the beauties of this place, and my time has been pretty well engrossed by them these three last days.... The fall in Omnium is I believe to be attributed to our continued expenses, and the expectation of another loan before the payments on the present are completed. The present state of the Exchanges seem[s] to indicate a real fall in the value of foreign currencies; it cannot be attributed to any change of taste for particular commodities, or any other caprice. I expected that Peace would lower the value of foreign currency, but I confess not in the degree which has taken place. It leaves the question between us undecided--namely, whether the exchange is not operated upon solely by the relative preponderance of currency. Peace has rendered the currency of the continent much more efficacious to the business to be done.

With regard to our present question, we differ as to effects which must _necessarily_ follow from restrictions on the importation of foreign corn. I do not think that a diminution of capital is a _necessary_, but a probable effect. We agree as to the consequences which will attend a diminution of capital, but I should say that a real diminution of capital will diminish the work to be done, and consequently will affect the wages of labour, and the demand for food. In the case supposed, restrictions on importation of corn, encouragement is given to the further cultivation of our own land,--but _if_ accompanied by a diminution of capital a discouragement is also given to the cultivation of the land, and whether profits rise or fall must in my opinion depend upon the degree of these contra-operating causes. It is true that the woollen or cotton manufacturer will not be able to work up the same quant.i.ty of goods with the same capital if he is obliged to pay more for the labour which he employs, but his profits will depend on the price at which his goods when manufactured will sell. If every person is determined to live on his revenue or income, without infringing on his capital, the rise of his goods will not be in the same proportion as the rise of labour, and consequently his percentage of profit will be diminished if he values his capital, which he must do, in money at the increased value to which all goods would rise in consequence of the rise of the wages of labour. In such case I should say that the effective demand had diminished, because the same quant.i.ty of commodities could not be annually consumed. If the same quant.i.ty of commodities continued to be consumed, then it must be evident that it would be at the expense of capital. In such case capital would diminish faster than demand, which would tend to keep up profits. But how long will [people] continue to indulge in luxuries at the expense of a continual diminution of capital? It is the road to ruin, and, though frequently persisted in by a few individuals, it is not often found to be the folly of nations. On the contrary, if any causes interrupt the progress of nations, if restrictions on their trade, or expensive wars, tend to diminish their capital, at such times more economy is practised, and, as Adam Smith has observed, the profusion of governments is counteracted by the frugality of individuals. If so, I cannot be incorrect in saying that, though for a short period capital and produce may diminish faster than demand,--yet in the long run effective demand cannot augment or continue stationary with a diminis.h.i.+ng capital. You say, what I did not before understand you to admit, 'that the whole amount of demand will from advanced prices diminish of course, but the proportion of demand to supply, which is always the main point in question, as determining prices and profits, may continue to increase, _as it does in all countries the capital of which is retrograde_;' but I do not agree even to this explanation, and it appears to me to be at variance with an opinion which I have often heard you express, viz. The temptation to save from revenue to augment capital is always in proportion to the rate of profits, and, if from acc.u.mulation of capital profits and interest should fall very low indeed, at that point acc.u.mulation would nearly stop, because it would be almost without an object. In this opinion I most cordially agree, and I cannot help thinking that it is at variance with the above sentence which I have quoted from your letter. I maintain, as I think you have done, that consumption as compared with production is always greatest where capital is most acc.u.mulated. Diminish the capital of England one half, and you undoubtedly augment profits, but it will not be in consequence of a greater proportion of demand but of a greater proportion of production; demand as compared with production could hardly fail to diminish. Individuals do not estimate their profits by the material production, but nations invariably do. If we had precisely the same amount of commodities of all descriptions in the year 1815 that we now have in 1814, as a nation we should be no richer; but, if money had sunk in value, they would be represented by a greater quant.i.ty of money, and individuals would be apt to _think_ themselves richer. I shall be in town either next week or the week after. I wish you would return here with me. We would discuss these important points in our shady groves. With kind regards to Mrs. Malthus,

I am, yours truly, DAVID RICARDO.

XVIII.

GATCOMB PARK, MINCHIN HAMPTON, _30th Aug., 1814_.

MY DEAR SIR,

I left London on the 19th, the day before your letter arrived there, having dispatched all my business in four days. The appearance of the Omnium was not sufficiently inviting to induce me to protract my stay longer than was absolutely necessary. David[63], who is come to pa.s.s his holidays with us, brought me your letter. I regret that I shall not see you for some time, as you cannot come here, and I shall not have it in my power at present to visit Hail[e]ybury. I expected to have a great deal of leisure time in the country, but as yet I have not had any.

Walking and riding with my family, and friends who have visited us, have entirely occupied me; besides which, the only room in my house which is not finished is the library, owing to the tedious time which they have taken to fix my bookcases.