Part 11 (1/2)

IPCC worst-case scenario: C. H. Sekercioglu, S. H. Schneider et al. (2008) 'Climate change, elevational range s.h.i.+fts, and bird extinctions', Conservation Biology 22: 14050; E. Marris, 'The escalator effect', Nature reports climate change, 23 November 2007.

Rate of change is a.n.a.lysed by R. Leemans and B. Eickhout (2004) 'Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change', Global Environmental Change 14: 21928.

A 2007 study is J. W. Williams, S. T. Jackson et al. (2007) 'Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 573842.

1350 European plant species: W. Thuiller, S. Lavorel et al. (2005) 'Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 102: 824550 Over the last 25 years: D. J. Seidel Q. Fu et al. (2008) 'Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate', Nature Geoscience 1: 2124; D. J. Seidel and W. J. Randel (2007) 'Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations', Journal Geophysical Research 112: D20113; S. Connor, 'Expanding tropics ”a threat to millions”', The Independent, 3 December 2007.

If the rate should exceed 4 degrees: S. Kallbekken and J. S. Fuglestvedt, 'Faster change means bigger problems', Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, ments are reported by F. Pearce in With Speed and Violence: why scientists fear tipping points in climate change (Beacon Press: Boston, 2007).

Chapter 8: What We Are Doing.

Greenhouse gases: Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WMO/ UNEP, 2007); J. Houghton, Global Warming: the complete briefing (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2004); J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2007) 'Climate change and trace gases', Philosophical Transactions Royal Society 365: 192554 Carbon dioxide: 'The global carbon cycle', UNESCO/Scope Policy Brief No. 2, October 2006; H. D. Matthews and K. Caldeira (2008) 'Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions', Geophysical Research Letters 35: L04705.

Methane: D. T. s.h.i.+ndell, G. Faluvegi et al. (2005) 'An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone', Geophysical Research Letters 32: L04803.

Aerosols: N. Bellouin, O. Boucher et al. (2005) 'Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements', Nature 438: 113841; M. O. Andreae, C. D. Jones et al. (2005) 'Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future', Nature 435: 118790; S. E. Schwartz, R. J. Charlson et al., 'Quantifying climate change - too rosy a picture?', Nature Reports: Climate Change, 27 June 2007; 'Faster climate change predicted as air quality improves', Max Plack Inst.i.tute for Chemistry press release, 30 June 2005, ment is 'Keep cool is the message on climate', Herald Sun, 10 December 2007.

Carbon dioxide emissions: M. R. Raupach, G. Marland et al. (2007) 'Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 1028893; 'CO2 emissions increasing faster than expected', CSIRO media release 07/89, 22 May 2007, pared to projections', Science 316: 709; D. M. Smith, S. Cusack et al. (2007) 'Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model', Science 317: 79699; J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2006) 'Global temperature change', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 103: 1428893.

Tipping points: J. von Radowitz, 'Ice cores hold threat of climate timebomb', The Age, 6 September 2006; J. Hansen, 'The threat to the planet: how can we avoid dangerous human-made climate change?', remarks on acceptance of WWF Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal at St. James Palace, 21 November 2006; W. Steffen, 'Climate Change: science, impacts and policy challenges', Policy Briefs 5 (Crawford School of Economics and Government, ANU: Canberra, 2007); J. Hansen, private communication, 29 March 2007; T. Colebatch, 'The European solution', The Age, 24 October 2006.

Chapter 10: Target 2 Degrees.

Sir John Holmes: J. Borger, 'Climate change disaster is upon us, warns UN', The Guardian, 5 October 2007 1-degree and 2-degree impacts are surveyed by M. Lynas, Six Degrees: our future on a hotter planet (Fourth Estate: London, 2007). North Queensland: J. W. Williams, S. T. Jackson et al. (2007) 'Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 573842; L. Minchin, 'Reef ”facing extinction”', The Age, 30 January 2007.

Setting goals: 'The Toronto and Ottawa conferences and the ”Law of the atmosphere”', geography.otago.ac.nz/Mirrors/ Climatechange-Factsheets_Mirror/fs215.html; I. Enting, T. Wigley et al., Future Emissions and Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land a.n.a.lyses, Technical Paper No. 31 (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research: Melbourne, 1994); J. Leggett, The Carbon War: global warming and the end of the oil era (Routledge: New York, 2001); N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006).

2-degree scenarios: M. Meinshausen, 'What does a 2C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief a.n.a.lysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates' in H. J. Sch.e.l.lnhuber, W. Cramer at al. (eds) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006); M. Meinshausen, 'Less than 2C trajectories: a brief background note', KyotoPlus conference papers, 2829 September 2006, Berlin; S. Rettalack, Setting a Long-term Climate Objective: a paper for the International Climate Change Taskforce (Inst.i.tute for Public Policy Research: London, 2005); P. Baer and M. Mastrandrea, High Stakes: designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change (Inst.i.tute for Public Policy Research: London, 2006); N. Rive, A. Torvanger et al. (2007) 'To what extent can a long-term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments', Climatic Change 82: 37391.

After a careful rea.s.sessment: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: Where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.