Part 10 (2/2)

Only 13 per cent of first-year ice survived melt season: 'Arctic sea ice news & a.n.a.lysis', nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews, accessed 17 April 2008. More open water in 2008: Prof. Olav Orheim, Executive Secretary for the International Polar Year Secretariat, personal communication, 10 March 2008.

Albedo flip: J. Hansen (2007) 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002; C. Parkinson, D. Rind et al. (2001) 'The impact of sea ice concentration accuracies on climate model simulations with the GISS GCM', Journal of Climate 14: 260623. A. Doyle, 'Arctic thaw may be at ”tipping point”', Reuters, 28 September 2007. Warmer surface temperatures: S. Borenstein, 'Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?', a.s.sociated Press, 12 December 2007.

Richard Spinrad's comment was reported by a.s.sociated Press, 'Climate change reshaping Arctic', 18 October 2007.

Chapter 2: Greenland's fate.

IPCC Greenland predictions: Climate Change 2007: synthesis report (IPCC: Geneva, 2007) Increased rate of ice ma.s.s loss: E. Rignot and P. Kanagaratnam (2006) 'Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland ice sheet', Science 311: 5763; J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson et al. (2006) 'Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice', Science 313: 195860; K. Young, 'Greenland ice cap may be melting at triple speed', New Scientist, 10 August 2006.

Increased rate of melting: M. Tedesco (2007) 'Snowmelt detection over the Greenland ice sheet from SSM/I brightness temperature daily variations', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L02504; T. L. Mote (2007) 'Greenland surface melt trends 19732007: Evidence of a large increase in 2007', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L22507; E. Saupe, 'Snowmelt on the rise in Greenland', GeoTimes, 7 June 2007; D. Shukman, 'Greenland ice-melt ”speeding up”', BBC News, 28 July 2007.

Increased air temperature: K. Steffen, R. Huff et al. (2007) 'Arctic warming, Greenland melt and moulins', Eos Trans. AGU 88(52) Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C21C-07 88(52). Robert Corell's comment was reported by E. Hilton, 'Greenland is now a country fit for broccoli growers', The Guardian, 14 September 2007.

Tremors: P. Brown, 'Scientists fear ice caps melting faster than predicted', The Guardian, 7 September 2007. Rising landma.s.s: C. Brahic, 'Shrinking ice means Greenland is rising fast', New Scientist, 2 November 2007.

Critical melt threshold: J. M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts et al. (2004) 'Climatology: Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet', Nature 426: 616; P. Chylek and U. Lohmann (2005) 'Ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change: Comparison of observations and climate modeling results', Geophysical Research Letters 32: L14705.

The remarks by Tim Lenton and Lenny Smith were reported by F. Pearce, 'Climate tipping points loom', New Scientist, 16 August 2007. At the threshold: 'Greenland's water loss has doubled in a decade', New Scientist, 25 February 2006.

James Hansen's comments: 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002; 'The threat to the planet: Actions required to avert dangerous climate change', presentation at SOLAR 2006 Conference on renewable energy, Denver, 10 July 2006; 'The threat to the planet: How can we avoid dangerous human-made climate change?', remarks on acceptance of WWF Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal at St James Palace, 21 November 2006. Hansen's presentations are available at ing - unless we act now', New Scientist, 28 July 2007; F. Pearce (as above).

The gravest threat: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2007) 'Climate change and trace gases', Philosophical Transactions Royal Society 365: 192554 East Antarctica: E. Rignot, J. L. Bamber et al. (2008) 'Recent Antarctic ice ma.s.s loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling', Nature Geoscience 1: 106110; F. Pearce (as above); M. Tedesco, W. Abdalati et al. (2007), 'Persistent surface snowmelt over Antarctica (19872006) from 19.35 GHz brightness temperatures', Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L18504; J. E. Francis and Robert S. Hill (1996) 'Fossil plants from the Pliocene Sirius group, Transantarctic Mountains: Evidence for climate from growth rings and fossil leaves', Palaios, 11: 38996.

Chapter 4: A Rising Tide.

The IPCC's sea-level rise predictions in February 2007 are contained in 'Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth a.s.sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers'. The final report for 2007 is Climate Change 2007: synthesis report (IPCC: Geneva).

Water run-off impounded on land: B. F. Chao, Y. H. Wu et al. (2008) 'Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level', Science 320: 21214.

Under-estimation of rises: S. Rahmstorf, J. Cazenave et al. (2007) 'Recent climate observations compared to projections', Science 316: 709; Robert Corell's comment is reported by F. Pearce, 'But here's what they didn't tell us', New Scientist, 10 February 2007; M. Oppenheimer, B. C. O'Neill et al. (2007) 'The Limits of Consensus', Science 317: 150506; P. Brown, 'Scientists fear ice caps melting faster than predicted', The Guardian, 7 September 2007.

James Hansen and his colleagues' writings on sea-level rises include 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002 and 'Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287312. The log extract is from 'Huge sea level rises are coming - unless we act now', New Scientist, 28 July 2007. Hansen's 1988 remarks are reported 'The public and climate change', ments at the AGU were reported by A. Beck, 'Carbon cuts a must to halt warming: US scientists', Reuters, 13 December 2007.

Stern's review is The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006).

Underground water: F. Pearce, 'Cities may be abandoned as salt water invades', New Scientist, 16 April 2006

Chapter 5: The Quickening Pace.

Climate sensitivity: N. Andronova and M. E. Schlesinger (2001) 'Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity', Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 22605; J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves (2006) 'Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity', Geophysical Research Letters 33: L06704; M. Hopkin, 'Climate sensitivity ”inherently unpredictable”', Nature News, 25 October 2007; B. Pittock (2006) 'Are scientists underestimating climate change?', Ecos 87: 34.

'Long run' sensitivity: J. Hansen, 'Can we defuse the global warming time bomb?', Natural Science, 1 August 2003; G. H. Roe and M. B. Baker (2007) 'Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?', Science 318: 62932; Hansen and M. Sato, 'Global warming: East-West connections' (draft September 2007), munity at elevated CO2 leads to loss of soil carbon', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 499095.

Amazon: Y. Malhi, J. T. Roberts et al. (2008) 'Climate change, deafforestation, and fate of the Amazon', Science 319: 16971; R. Butler, 'Amazon rainforest fires 'worst' in memory', Mongabay. com, 16 October 2007, new.mongabay.com/2007/1016-amazon.html, accessed 28 October 2007; D. Howden and J. Steven (2007) 'South America chokes as Amazon burns', The Independent, 5 October 2007; T. H. Lenton, H. Held et al. (2008) 'Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system' Proceedings National Academy Sciences 105: 178693.

Indonesia: S. Page, F. Siegert et al. (2002) 'The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997', Nature 420: 6165.

Permafrost: M. T. Jorgenson, Y. L. Shur et al. (2006) 'Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska', Geophysical Research Letters 33: L02503; K. M. Walter, S. A. Zimov et al. (2006) 'Melting lakes in Siberia emit greenhouse gas”, Nature 443: 7175; D. Struck, 'At the poles, melting occurring at an alarming rate', Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 22 October 2007; D. Solovyov and A. Doyle, 'Siberian thaw could speed up global warming', Sydney Morning Herald, 26 September 2007; J. Randerson, 'Forests battle to soak up carbon', The Age, 4 January 2008; J. B. Miller (2008) 'Carbon cycle: Sources, sinks and seasons', Nature 451: 2627.

Ocean sinks: C. LeQuere, C. Rodenbeck, et al. (2007) 'Saturation of the southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change', Science 316: 173538; A. Woodc.o.c.k, 'Scientists fear climate change speed-up as oceans fail to hold greenhouse gases', The Scotsman, 21 October 2007; M. J. Behrenfeld, K. Worthington et al. (2007) 'Controls on tropical Pacific Ocean productivity revealed through nutrient stress diagnostics', Nature 442: 102528; J. J. Polovina, E. A. Howell et al. (2008) 'Ocean's least productive waters are expanding', Geophysical Research Letters 35: L03618; K. Caldeira, D. Archer et al. (2007) 'Comment on ”Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity” by Hugo A. Loaiciga', Geophysical Research Letters 38: L18608; R. Kleinman, 'Warming turns Barrier Reef acidic', The Age, 18 October 2007

Chapter 6: Most Species, Most Ecosystems.

Martin Parry's statement was reported by D. Adam, 'How climate change will affect the world, The Guardian, 19 September 2007.

Species extinction as temperatures rose 5 degrees: S. T. Jackson and C. Y. Weng (1999) 'Late quaternary extinction of a tree species in eastern North America', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 96: 1384752; S. Rahmstorf, 'Climate change fact sheet', Potsdam Inst.i.tute for Climate Impact Research,

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