Part 27 (2/2)

However, there does appear to be a way to see inside a black hole, because black holes give off a shower of particles. Particle-antiparticle pairs are created near the event horizon (as happens everywhere in s.p.a.ce), and for some of these pairs, one of the pair is pulled into the black hole while the other manages to escape. These escaping particles form a glow called Hawking radiation, named after its discoverer, Stephen Hawking. The current thinking is that this radiation does reflect (in a coded fas.h.i.+on, and as a result of a form of quantum entanglement with the particles inside) what is happening inside the black hole. Hawking initially resisted this explanation but now appears to agree.

So, we find our use of the term ”Singularity” in this book to be no less appropriate than the deployment of this term by the physics community. Just as we find it hard to see beyond the event horizon of a black hole, we also find it difficult to see beyond the event horizon of the historical Singularity. How can we, with our brains each limited to 1016 to 10 to 1019 cps, imagine what our future civilization in 2099 with its 10 cps, imagine what our future civilization in 2099 with its 1060 cps will be capable of thinking and doing? cps will be capable of thinking and doing?

Nevertheless, just as we can draw conclusions about the nature of black holes through our conceptual thinking, despite never having actually been inside one, our thinking today is powerful enough to have meaningful insights into the implications of the Singularity. That's what I've tried to do in this book.

Human Centrality. A common view is that science has consistently been correcting our overly inflated view of our own significance. Stephen Jay Gould said, ”The most important scientific revolutions all include, as their only common feature, the dethronement of human arrogance from one pedestal after another of previous convictions about our centrality in the cosmos.” A common view is that science has consistently been correcting our overly inflated view of our own significance. Stephen Jay Gould said, ”The most important scientific revolutions all include, as their only common feature, the dethronement of human arrogance from one pedestal after another of previous convictions about our centrality in the cosmos.”5 But it turns out that we are central, after all. Our ability to create models-virtual realities-in our brains, combined with our modest-looking thumbs, has been sufficient to usher in another form of evolution: technology. That development enabled the persistence of the accelerating pace that started with biological evolution. It will continue until the entire universe is at our fingertips.

Resources and Contact Information

Singularity.com

New developments in the diverse fields discussed in this book are acc.u.mulating at an accelerating pace. To help you keep pace, I invite you to visit Singularity.com, where you will find

Recent news storiesA compilation of thousands of relevant news stories going back to 2001 from KurzweilAI.net (see below)Hundreds of articles on related topics from KurzweilAI.netResearch linksData and citation for all graphsMaterial about this bookExcerpts from this bookOnline endnotes

KurzweilAI.net

You are also invited to visit our award-winning Web site, KurzweilAI.net, which includes over six hundred articles by over one hundred ”big thinkers” (many of whom are cited in this book), thousands of news articles, listings of events, and other features. Over the past six months, we have had more than one million readers. Memes on KurzweilAI.net include:

The SingularityWill Machines Become Conscious?Living Forever o How to Build a BrainVirtual RealitiesNanotechnologyDangerous FuturesVisions of the FuturePoint/Counterpoint

You can sign up for our free (daily or weekly) e-newsletter by putting your e-mail address in the simple one-line form on the KurzweilAI.net home page. We do not share your e-mail address with anyone.

Fantastic-Voyage.net and RayandTerry.com

For those of you who would like to optimize your health today, and to maximize your prospects of living long enough to actually witness and experience the Singularity, visit Fantastic-Voyage.net and RayandTerry.com. I developed these sites with Terry Grossman, M.D., my health collaborator and coauthor of Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever. These sites contain extensive information about improving your health with today's knowledge so that you can be in good health and spirits when the biotechnology and nanotechnology revolutions are fully mature.

Contacting the Author

Ray Kurzweil can be reached at

APPENDIX.

The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited

The following a.n.a.lysis provides the basis of understanding evolutionary change as a doubly exponential phenomenon (that is, exponential growth in which the rate of exponential growth-the exponent-is itself growing exponentially). I will describe here the growth of computational power, although the formulas are similar for other aspects of evolution, especially information-based processes and technologies, including our knowledge of human intelligence, which is a primary source of the software of intelligence.

We are concerned with three variables:

V: Velocity (that is, power) of computation (measured in calculations per second per unit cost) W: World knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time

As a first-order a.n.a.lysis, we observe that computer power is a linear function of W W. We also note that W W is c.u.mulative. This is based on the observation that relevant technology algorithms are acc.u.mulated in an incremental way. In the case of the human brain, for example, evolutionary psychologists argue that the brain is a ma.s.sively modular intelligence system, evolved over time in an incremental manner. Also, in this simple model, the instantaneous increment to knowledge is proportional to computational power. These observations lead to the conclusion that computational power grows exponentially over time. is c.u.mulative. This is based on the observation that relevant technology algorithms are acc.u.mulated in an incremental way. In the case of the human brain, for example, evolutionary psychologists argue that the brain is a ma.s.sively modular intelligence system, evolved over time in an incremental manner. Also, in this simple model, the instantaneous increment to knowledge is proportional to computational power. These observations lead to the conclusion that computational power grows exponentially over time.

In other words, computer power is a linear function of the knowledge of how to build computers. This is actually a conservative a.s.sumption. In general, innovations improve V V by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations (each representing a linear increment to knowledge) multiply one another's effects. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor), a more efficient IC wiring methodology, a processor innovation such as pipelining, or an algorithmic improvement such as the fast Fourier transform, all increase by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations (each representing a linear increment to knowledge) multiply one another's effects. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor), a more efficient IC wiring methodology, a processor innovation such as pipelining, or an algorithmic improvement such as the fast Fourier transform, all increase V V by independent multiples. by independent multiples.

As noted, our initial observations are: The velocity of computation is proportional to world knowledge:

(1) [image]

<script>