Chapter 356 - The World’s Biggest Problems And Why They’re Not What First Comes To Mind[3] (1/2)
Artificial intelligence and the 'alignment problem'
Around 1800, civilisation underwent one of the most profound shifts in human history: the industrial revolution.
Looking forward, what might be the next industrial revolution – the next pivotal event in history that shapes what happens to all future generations? If we could identify such a transition, that may well be the most important area in which to work.
One candidate is bioengineering – the ability to fundamentally redesign human beings – as covered by Yuval Noah Harari in Sapiens.
But we think there's an even bigger issue that's even more neglected: artificial intelligence.
Billions of dollars are spent trying to make artificial intelligence more powerful, but hardly any effort is devoted to making sure that those added capabilities are implemented safely and for the benefit of humanity.
This matters for two main reasons.
First, powerful AI systems have the potential to be misused. For instance, if the Soviet Union had developed nuclear weapons far in advance of the USA, then it might have been able to use them to establish itself as the leading global super power. Similarly, the development of AI might also destablise the global order, or lead to a concentration of power, by giving one nation far more power than it currently has.
Second, there is a risk of accidents when powerful new AI systems are deployed. This is especially pressing due to the ”alignment problem.”
This is a complex topic, so if you want to explore it properly, we recommend reading this article by Wait But Why, or watching the video below.
If you really have time, read Professor Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. But here's a quick introduction.
In the 1980s, chess was held up as an example of something a machine could never do. But in 1997, world chess champion Garry Kasparov was defeated by the computer program Deep Blue. Since then, computers have become far better at chess than humans.
In 2004, two experts in artificial intelligence used truck driving as an example of a job that would be really hard to automate. But today, self-driving cars are already on the road.
In 2014, Professor Bostrom predicted that it would take ten years for a computer to beat the top human player at the ancient Chinese game of Go. But it was achieved in March 2016 by Google DeepMind.
The most recent of these advances are possible due to progress in a type of AI technique called ”machine learning”. In the past, we mostly had to give computers detailed instructions for every task. Today, we have programs that teach themselves how to achieve a goal. The same algorithm that can play Space Invaders below has also learned to play about 50 other arcade games. Machine learning has been around for decades, but improved algorithms (especially around ”deep learning” techniques), faster processors, bigger data sets, and huge investments by companies like Google have led to amazing advances far faster than expected.
Google DeepMind Plays Space Invaders at a super-human level
Due to this, many experts think human-level artificial intelligence could easily happen in our lifetimes. Here is a survey of 100 of the most cited AI scientists:
You can see the experts give a 50% chance of human-level AI happening by 2050, just 35 years in the future. Admittedly, they are very uncertain, but high uncertainty also means it could arrive sooner rather than later. You can read much more about when human-level AI might happen here.
Why is this important? Gorillas are faster than us, stronger than us, and have a more powerful bite. But there are only 100,000 gorillas in the wild, compared to seven billion humans, and their fate is up to us. A major reason for this is a difference in intelligence.