Part 15 (2/2)

40 Louis Bachelier: Louis Bachelier, ”Theorie de la speculation,” in Annales Scientifiques de l'ecole Normale Superieure 3 (1900): 21-86; Justin Fox, The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street (New York: Harper Business, 2009), 6-8

40 ”The consensus of judgment”: Lawrence quoted in John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash, 1929 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1954), 75

41 postwar academic departments: Fox, Myth of the Rational Market, 89-107

41 ”random walk” theory: Burton G Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street (New York: WW Norton, 1973)

41 ”Don't bother”: Andrew W Lo and A Craig MacKinlay, A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), 6

41 Yale economist Robert shi+ller: Robert J shi+ller, ”Consumption, asset Markets and Macroeconoie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 17 (1982): 203-38

42 ”While markets are not totally crazy”: Robert J shi+ller, ”From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (2003): 90

42 ”y”: Ibid

42 recent research in behavioral finance: Ibid; Fox, Myth of the Rational Market, 175-210, 247-64

42 ”fundamental parameters”: shi+ller, ”From Efficient Markets Theory,” 94

42 ”biased self-attribution”: Kent Daniel, David Hirshleifer, and Avanidhar Subray and Security Market Under- and Overreactions,” Journal of Finance 53 (1998): 1839-85

43 ”some accidentsets speculation”: John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economans Green, 1909): 527-29

45 William Stanley Jevons: Sandra J Peart, ”Sunspots and Expectations: W S Jevons's Theory of Econoht 13 (1991): 243-65

45 Karl Marx: Robert L Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times, and Ideas of the Great Econolia, Wealth of Ideas, 244-77

45 ”Modern bourgeois society”: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, The Couin, 2002), 225-26

47 John Maynard Keynes: Heilbroner, Worldly Philosophers, 248-87; Roncaglia, Wealth of Ideas, 384-88

47 no ordinary economist: Heilbroner and Thurow, Economics Explained, 38-39

47 ”I believe”: Keynes quoted in Hyman P Minsky, John Maynard Keynes (New York: Columbia University Press, 1975), 3

48 ”paradox of thrift”: Keynes, General Theory, 84

48 ”animal spirits”: Ibid, 162

49 ”We Are All Keynesians Now”: ”The Economy: We Are All Keynesians Now,” Time, December 31, 1965

49 Friedman and his coauthor: Milton Friedman and Anna J Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), 299-419

49 most notably Peter Temin: Peter Temin, Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (New York: WW Norton, 1976)

50 ”bastard Keynesianism”: Joan Robinson, What Are the Questions? And Other Essays: Further Contributions to Modern Economics (Armonk, NY: M E Sharpe, 1980), 34

50 ”Instabilityis an inherent”: Hy an Unstable Economy (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008), 134

50 ”Implicit in [Keynes's] analysis”: Minsky, John Maynard Keynes, 11-12

51 ”The interposition of this veil”: John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion (New York: WW Norton, 1963), 169

51 Financial Instability Hypothesis: Hyman Minsky, ”The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to 'Standard' Theory,” and ”The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Restateain? Essays on Instability and Finance (Armonk, NY: M E Sharpe, 1982), 59-70, 90-116

52 Irving Fisher: Irving Fisher, ”The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions,” Econometrica 1 (1933): 346

54 The Austrian School: See Steven Horwitz, ”The Austrian Marginalists: Menger, Bohm-Bawerk, and Wieser,” and Peter J Boettke and Peter T Leeson, ”The Austrian School of Economics: 1950-2000,” both in Samuel, Biddle, and Davis, eds, Coht, 262-77, 445-53

54 Schumpeter's worldview: Joseph Alois Schue, 2006), 81-86

55 According to some Austrian economists: See, for example, Murray Rothbard, America's Great Depression (New York: New York University Press, 1973)

56 ”Greenspan put”: Peronet Despeignes, ”Greenspan Put May Be Encouraging Complacency,” Financial Times, Dece, ”Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: analysing the 'Greenspan Put,' ” Economic Journal 112 (2002): C171-86

57 the road that japan paved in the 1990s: See, for exa japan's Recession,” Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics 5 (2002): 35-50

57 Economan, Return of Depression Economics, 74-77; Charles Yuji Horioka, ”The Causes of japan's 'Lost Decade': The Role of Household Consumption,” japan and the World Economy 18 (2006): 378-400

59 ”economists set themselves”: John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform (London: Macmillan, 1923), 80

59 ”Well,this is probably a change”: Conor Clarke, ”An Intervieith Paul Samuelson, Part Two,” Atlantic, June 18, 2009, online at correspondentstheatlanticcom/conor_clarke/2009/06/an_intervieith_paul_samuelson_part_twophp

60 Scottish journalist: Charles Mackay, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (London: National Illustrated Library, 1852) This expanded edition replaced the original work published in 1841

Chapter 3: Plate Tectonics

62 In the 1840s Great Britain: C N Ward-Perkins, ”The Commercial Crisis of 1847,” Oxford Economic Papers 2 (1950): 75-94; H M Boot, The Commercial Crisis of 1847, Occasional Papers in Economic and Social History, no 11 (Hull, UK: Hull University Press, 1984)

63 The saument for the positive effects of bubbles is Daniel Gross, Pop! Why Bubbles Are Great for the Economy (New York: Harper Business, 2007)