Part 15 (1/2)

Manfred Bleuler, a German psychiatrist, was the first researcher to systee this view15 In a twenty-year follow-up of more than two hundred patients, he found 20 percent ”fully recovered” Moreover, he concluded that long-lasting recoveries did not result from treatment and hence appeared to be spontaneous In a twenty-year follow-up of more than two hundred patients, he found 20 percent ”fully recovered” Moreover, he concluded that long-lasting recoveries did not result from treatment and hence appeared to be spontaneous

Then a Ger-term follow-up of patients who had been ad the late 1940s and early 1950s16 Going back to the records, they reviewed the diagnosis of schizophrenia and chose only patients whose histories and symptoms were consistent with modern definitions of the disease There were about five hundred Then they located the people or their fah intervieith the patients and people who knew them, created detailed portraits of what had happened to thenosis of schizophrenia and chose only patients whose histories and symptoms were consistent with modern definitions of the disease There were about five hundred Then they located the people or their fah intervieith the patients and people who knew them, created detailed portraits of what had happened to them

Many - about a quarter - had died, mostly suicides Some were still institutionalized, apparently unresponsive to any drugs or to electroshock treatment, which was used far roup was living with their faative syy, lack of drive, and lack of interest and pleasure in life But a surprisingly large group - perhaps a quarter - see independently, with a circle of friends and jobs in the professions for which they had been trained or had held before they got sick Most of these had not been under the care of a physician for years

The researchers were extreh the slobal community of schizophrenia researchers, a team in the United States at the University of Ver-term study Despite their initial skepticism, their results were remarkably similar17 Ten years after the disease struck, most patients were still extrenificantfairly normal lives Only about 5 percent confore Most of those who committed suicide, it turned out, did so in the first ten years of the disease These appeared to be people who got well enough between acute episodes to appreciate the awfulness of what lay ahead of thee to thinking and emotion from the disease seemed to occur in those years as well After that, symptoms seemed to level out Ten years after the disease struck, most patients were still extrenificantfairly normal lives Only about 5 percent confore Most of those who committed suicide, it turned out, did so in the first ten years of the disease These appeared to be people who got well enough between acute episodes to appreciate the awfulness of what lay ahead of thee to thinking and emotion from the disease seemed to occur in those years as well After that, symptoms seemed to level out

Subsequent research has so-ternoses and by differences over what constitutes ”recovery” A study by Winokur and Tsuang of 170 All long-ternoses and by differences over what constitutes ”recovery” A study by Winokur and Tsuang of 170 patients, perhaps the orous, found that thirty years after the onset of the illness, just 8 percent could be considered well patients, perhaps the orous, found that thirty years after the onset of the illness, just 8 percent could be considered well19 Thus, while Nash's dramatic recovery is not unique, it is relatively rare

While none of the studies was able to pinpoint factors that favored recovery, they suggest that someone with Nash's history prior to the onset of his illness - high social class, high IQ, high achieveets the disease relatively late in the third decade, who experiences very acute syreat life change - has the best chance of re men like Nash for whom the contrast between early achievement and the state to which they are reduced by the disease is greatest are also most likely to commit suicide Since suicides are relatively rare for hospitalized patients, Marthathe 1960s, that he be hospitalized Whether or not insulin shock and antipsychotic drugs, which apparently produced the temporary remissions Nash experienced in the first half of the 1960s, increased the odds of a reer nu the 1950s, when antipsychotic drugs beca those ere sys wasn't a particularly accurate indicator of ould happen later On the other hand, young men like Nash for whom the contrast between early achievement and the state to which they are reduced by the disease is greatest are also most likely to commit suicide Since suicides are relatively rare for hospitalized patients, Marthathe 1960s, that he be hospitalized Whether or not insulin shock and antipsychotic drugs, which apparently produced the temporary remissions Nash experienced in the first half of the 1960s, increased the odds of a reer nu the 1950s, when antipsychotic drugs beca those ere sys wasn't a particularly accurate indicator of ould happen later21 At the sas after 1970, and indeed duringthe 1960s, h percentage of cases, produce horrible, persistent sy of head and neck ue - and a entle reentry into the world of mathematics a near impossibility At the sas after 1970, and indeed duringthe 1960s, h percentage of cases, produce horrible, persistent sy of head and neck ue - and a entle reentry into the world of mathematics a near impossibility22 Nash's remission did not come about, as many people later assued fro,” he said in 1996, ”ulties of aging”23 He described the process as one that involved both a growing awareness of the sterility of his delusional state and a growing capacity for rejecting delusional thought He wrote in 1995: Gradually I began to intellectually reject so which had been characteristic of nizably, with the rejection of politically-oriented thinking as essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort24

He believes, rightly or wrongly, that he willed his own recovery: Actually, it can be analogous to the role of willpower in effectively dieting: if onethen one can sinize and reject the irrational hypotheses of delusional thinking Actually, it can be analogous to the role of willpower in effectively dieting: if onethen one can sinize and reject the irrational hypotheses of delusional thinking25

”A key step was a resolution not to concern myself in politics relative to my secret world because it was ineffectual,” he wrote in his nobel autobiography ”This in turn led ious issues, or teaching or intending to teach

”I began to study mathematical problems and to learn the computer as it existed at the tiot me co in the titles of dozens of articles in leading economics journals27 But Nash hier researchers, of course, siuishi+ng in a mental hospital or had heard that he had a lobotoer researchers, of course, siuishi+ng in a mental hospital or had heard that he had a lobotomy28 Even the best-inforhost In particular, with the exception of the 1978 von Neunition and honors routinely accorded scholars of his stature siious episode in the academic year 198788 illustrated just hoerfully the perceptions of Nash's inalized status, even in the field, econoregious episode in the academic year 198788 illustrated just hoerfully the perceptions of Nash's inalized status, even in the field, econo elected a Fellow in the Econometric Society is, as one for one's membershi+p card in the club of bona-fide econo Fellows, including every past and future nobel Laureate to date but Douglass North (presumably excluded because he is an economic historian, not acontributor to game theory - Kuhn, Shapley, Shubik, Aumann, Harsanyi, Selten, and so forth - but not Nash By 1987, there were so every past and future nobel Laureate to date but Douglass North (presumably excluded because he is an economic historian, not acontributor to game theory - Kuhn, Shapley, Shubik, Aumann, Harsanyi, Selten, and so forth - but not Nash31 In late 1988, Ariel Rubinstein, a recently elected Felloas surprised to discover this ”historic mistake” and promptly nominated Nash In late 1988, Ariel Rubinstein, a recently elected Felloas surprised to discover this ”historic mistake” and promptly nominated Nash32 The nomination came too late for the November 1989 election Further, the society's bylaws required any candidate proposed by a sole sponsor to passcommittee - one of whose main tasks was, in any case, to ”deter cohts33 As a result, the nomination was forwarded to the co of 1989 By then, Rubinstein, a game theorist who holds professorshi+ps at the University of Tel Aviv and Princeton University, was a member of the committee The otherat the London School of Econoland), Beth Allen at the University of Minnesota, Gary Chamberlain at Harvard, and Truman Bewley at Yale As a result, the nomination was forwarded to the co of 1989 By then, Rubinstein, a game theorist who holds professorshi+ps at the University of Tel Aviv and Princeton University, was a member of the committee The otherat the London School of Econoland), Beth Allen at the University of Minnesota, Gary Chamberlain at Harvard, and Truman Bewley at Yale34 The proposal to put Nash on the ballot sparked an intense controversy between Rubinstein and the rest of the coed on for months Fro said in 1996: ”People felt in soue sense this was relevant”35 Other committee members pointed out that Nash had no recent publications, was not even a member of the society, and was unlikely to participate actively, if elected Other committee members pointed out that Nash had no recent publications, was not even a member of the society, and was unlikely to participate actively, if elected36 At one point Truman Bewley, the committee's chairman, wrote to Rubinstein, ”I doubt [Nash] would be elected, since he is well known to have been crazy for years,” dis the nomination as ”frivolous” At one point Truman Bewley, the committee's chairman, wrote to Rubinstein, ”I doubt [Nash] would be elected, since he is well known to have been crazy for years,” dis the nomination as ”frivolous”37 When Rubinstein refused to back down, Bewley asked him to find out more about ”the current status of Nash's health” After Rubinstein objected that no other candidates were being si, aue at Yale Martin Shubik, who had known Nash in graduate school and had received some of Nash's ”arding Nash, I inquired and learned that he is still crazy Fellowshi+p is an activity more than a reward for past work The fellows are the ulti body of the Econometric Society” When Rubinstein refused to back down, Bewley asked him to find out more about ”the current status of Nash's health” After Rubinstein objected that no other candidates were being si, aue at Yale Martin Shubik, who had known Nash in graduate school and had received some of Nash's ”arding Nash, I inquired and learned that he is still crazy Fellowshi+p is an activity more than a reward for past work The fellows are the ulti body of the Econometric Society”38 In June, the committee voted four to one to keep Nash off the November 1989 ballot Rubinstein was the sole dissenter Beth Allen recalled, ”People were asked to give a rank ordering Nash didn't make it Ariel had a fit He insisted Nash be put on the ballot anyway” Bewley made it clear that the retted ”It was the wrong decision,” he said in 199639 The episode is reminiscent of the Institute for Advanced Study's refusal, for rant a ician Kurt Godel The episode is reminiscent of the Institute for Advanced Study's refusal, for rant a ician Kurt Godel40 But, in that case, there was considerably more justification, since the Institute's tiny mathematics faculty feared that Godel's well-known paranoia and terror of decision- its ability to conduct business, which included the selection of each year's visiting scholars But, in that case, there was considerably more justification, since the Institute's tiny mathematics faculty feared that Godel's well-known paranoia and terror of decision- its ability to conduct business, which included the selection of each year's visiting scholars41 The crowning irony of this affair is that when Nash did get on the ballot, in the election for 1990 (because Rubinstein circu a joint noan, and Roger Myerson, at Northwestern University),42 he received, according to the Secretary of the society, Julie Gordon, ”the overwhel to the Secretary of the society, Julie Gordon, ”the overwhel majority of the votes”43

CHAPTER 48

The Prize

You will have to wait to find out [the story of Nash s prize] in fifty years We will never reveal it - CARL-OLOF J JACOBSON, secretary general Royal Swedish Acadeeneral Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, February 1997 IT IS T TUESDAY, October 12, 1994 Jorgen Weibull, a personable young professor of economics, looks at his watch for perhaps the fiftieth ti professor of economics, looks at his watch for perhaps the fiftieth ti near the front of the massive Sessions Hall of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences - a jewelbox of a roo and portrait-lined walls - which, at the moment, is croith reporters and camera crews, jammed in narrow aisles between the U-shaped tables Near-pande in loud voices about the delay He is standing near the front of the massive Sessions Hall of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences - a jewelbox of a roo and portrait-lined walls - which, at the moment, is croith reporters and camera crews, jammed in narrow aisles between the U-shaped tables Near-pande in loud voices about the delay

Weibull had been so elated when he left his office at the University of Stockholh the highway underpass and up the hill to the academy half a mile away assar Lindbeck, the chairman of the prize co on hand to answer questions at the press conference - quite an honor But now Weibull's mouth feels dry, his shoulders ache, and he can feel the first twinges of a headache as he tries to i

The nobel press conference had, as usual, been called for eleven-thirty These staid, heavily scripted events are always held right after the final, ceremonial vote and always always start on tin of any acade that nothing like this has ever happened before start on tin of any acade that nothing like this has ever happened before

Suddenly, the enor open and a small knot of acadehtly dazed expressions, like ht They hurry past theaside the de near the table with the es to catch Lindbeck's eye for a fraction of a second The relief is overwhel like that,” he said later, ”but I saw right away that everything had turned out all right”2 And the relief turns into so like joy when he listens to Carl-Olof Jacobson, the academy's handso like joy when he listens to Carl-Olof Jacobson, the acadeeneral, read the first feords of the press release: ”John Forbes Nash, Jr, of Princeton, New Jersey ” secretary general, read the first feords of the press release: ”John Forbes Nash, Jr, of Princeton, New Jersey ”3 The behind-the-scenes saga of John Nash's nobel Prize is almost as extraordinary as the fact that the mathematician became a Laureate at all For years after the idea of a prize for game theory was first considered, even Nash'simpossibly remote4 But much later, when the prize was virtually his, after he had been told that he had won it, and within an hour of the official notification, the But much later, when the prize was virtually his, after he had been told that he had won it, and within an hour of the official notification, the ne plus ultra ne plus ultra of honors very nearly eluded hi consequences for the future of the economics prize itself of honors very nearly eluded hi consequences for the future of the economics prize itself

This previously untold story is one that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the nobel Foundation - intent on preserving the Olympian aura that surrounds the prizes - have tried very hard to keep under wraps The academy is one of the most secretive of societies, and all details - the nothy selection process are auarded secrets in the world The very statutes of the prize demand it: Proposals received for the award of a prize, and investigations and opinions concerning the award of a prize ent opinions have been expressed in connection with the decision of the prize-winning body concerning the award of the prize, these ed A prize-winning body may, however, after due consideration in each individual case, permit access to material which for a prize, for purposes of historical research Such perranted until at least 50 years have elapsed after the date on which the decision in question was taken5

There have been breaches, of course In the 1960s and 1970s, advance rumors of the literature Laureates used to trickle out of the Acadeularity6 In 1994, a ian nobel Co peace prize to the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, and took his protest to the media Michael Sohlman, the executive director of the nobel Foundation, still sounds furious when he recounts the incident In 1994, a ian nobel Co peace prize to the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, and took his protest to the media Michael Sohlman, the executive director of the nobel Foundation, still sounds furious when he recounts the incident7 But, few, if any, cracks have appeared, figuratively or otherwise, in the gray Beaux Arts walls of the Royal Swedish Acadeuardian of the physics, chemistry, and economics prizes If not for the mysterious one-and-a-half-hour delay on the day that the Nash prize was announced, the acade the secrecy of the process As it was, academy officials not only refused to explain the delay but denied that it was in any way significant Indeed, they very quickly began to assert that it had never happened Recently, Karl-Goran Maler, a member of the economics prize committee in 1994 and privy to all of the events that transpired, said, ”I do not recall Karl-Goran Maler, a member of the economics prize committee in 1994 and privy to all of the events that transpired, said, ”I do not recall any any delay” delay”8 The prize in econo of a stepchild9 Alfred nobel, the Swedish industrialist and inventor, did not have the dismal science innobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace The economics prize was not created until nearly seventy years later, the brainchild of the then head of the Swedish central bank The prize is financed by the bank and administered by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the nobel Foundation It is not, in fact, a nobel Prize, but rather ”The Central Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Science in Memory of Alfred nobel” To the public, that is a distinction without much of a difference The early winners of the econo theenerally acknowledged to be intellectual giants and lent their distinction to the prize And, so far at least, it has become ”the ultimate symbol of excellence for scientists and laymen alike” and does in fact make economics nobel-ists ”life peers in the world community of scholars” Alfred nobel, the Swedish industrialist and inventor, did not have the dismal science innobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace The economics prize was not created until nearly seventy years later, the brainchild of the then head of the Swedish central bank The prize is financed by the bank and administered by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the nobel Foundation It is not, in fact, a nobel Prize, but rather ”The Central Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Science in Memory of Alfred nobel” To the public, that is a distinction without much of a difference The early winners of the econo theenerally acknowledged to be intellectual giants and lent their distinction to the prize And, so far at least, it has become ”the ultimate symbol of excellence for scientists and laymen alike” and does in fact make economics nobel-ists ”life peers in the world community of scholars”10 The criteria, rules, and procedures for the economics prize are patterned after those that apply to the science prizes11 CandidatesNo more than three can share a prize, which is less of a problem in economics than in physical science, where teahprocess, have failed to appreciate it, the nobel is not a prize for outstanding individuals nor is it a lifetime achievement award The prize is awarded for specific achievements, inventions, and discoveries These can be theories, analytical methods, or purely empirical results As in physics, in whicha role as in econoainst prizes for onlyNo more than three can share a prize, which is less of a problem in economics than in physical science, where teahprocess, have failed to appreciate it, the nobel is not a prize for outstanding individuals nor is it a lifetime achievement award The prize is awarded for specific achievements, inventions, and discoveries These can be theories, analytical methods, or purely empirical results As in physics, in whicha role as in econoainst prizes for only mathematics12 (nobel hih so around sexual and professional jealousy - turn out to have been apocryphal) (nobel hih so around sexual and professional jealousy - turn out to have been apocryphal)13'

The prize selection process is also virtually identical to the cycles for the science prizes14 A five-meathers nominations and referees reports from elite academics around the world The co, usually in April The so-called Social Sciences Class - all academy members in economics and other social sciences - endorses the candidate or candidates in early fall, usually late August or early September And the academy votes on the nominees in early October, on the day that the winner or winners are announced A five-meathers nominations and referees reports from elite academics around the world The co, usually in April The so-called Social Sciences Class - all academy members in economics and other social sciences - endorses the candidate or candidates in early fall, usually late August or early September And the academy votes on the nominees in early October, on the day that the winner or winners are announced

On paper, at least, all the uished as the candidates, and the selection of winners is a detached, disinterested, and, ultiment - as divorced from personal likes and dislikes, prejudices, or political and pecuniary considerations as the business of deter the winners in a sports tournaood deal, of truth in this idealized description of what actually goes on, but it is not anything like the whole story good deal, of truth in this idealized description of what actually goes on, but it is not anything like the whole story

assar Lindbeck, who joined the prize committee in 1969 and became its chairman in 1980, has dominated the economics selections for the entire history of the nobel Prize15 Tall, red-haired, powerfully built, he looks like the boss of a machine tool shop or a mine He is froht,ones, about nearly all topics that engage his lively mind, and as a result is quite unpopular in the academy But he is not without a certain earthy charm His sense of hu up at prize colasses A large - and extres in his office at the university Tall, red-haired, powerfully built, he looks like the boss of a machine tool shop or a mine He is froht,ones, about nearly all topics that engage his lively mind, and as a result is quite unpopular in the academy But he is not without a certain earthy charm His sense of hu up at prize colasses A large - and extres in his office at the university

Lindbeck is Sweden's most important econoovern been closely entwined, have traditionally wielded a great deal more political power than their American counterparts16 Bertil Ohlin, the committee's first chairman, was for years the leader of Sweden's opposition Gunnar Myrdal, on the prize in 1974, was a overne of Prime Minister Olof Palme, has held many political advisory posts, and has been involved in most public policy debates since the 1960s Bertil Ohlin, the committee's first chairman, was for years the leader of Sweden's opposition Gunnar Myrdal, on the prize in 1974, was a overne of Prime Minister Olof Palme, has held many political advisory posts, and has been involved in most public policy debates since the 1960s