469 Missions Failed (1/2)
The US National Track and Field Team held its first intensified training in Eugene, the capital of track and field.
In the afternoon, the main track of the field had been cleared out to hold the men's 400-meter test match.
In addition to three Olympians and one substitute, the other four were all training partners, but they would've been strong enough to participate in the Olympic Games in other countries.
You could find high-level training partners in nearly all track events, especially in Eugene, the capital of track and field. Besides, these training partners were willing to train with the national athletes.
Aylwin was standing on the best track, with an unstoppable momentum. Although it was just an unimportant training match, the king of the 400-meter event showed his momentum without any hesitation.
Both the competitors and training partners looked at Aylwin with admiration. For the 400-meter athletes, this training match was also a process of pursuing a star. It would also be a literal pursuit, because Aylwin would definitely be in first place.
The US coaching group were talking about Aylwin beside the field.
”Aylwin's performance has been really good since he returned. I think he seems to be the same as before,” said one coach.
”I think if there is a comeback player of the year award, it must belong to Aylwin. He certainly has a chance at the Olympic championship this time. Four Olympic championships in a row. It's really exciting,” another coach responded.
”He is 34 years old, yet he is as strong as a young man in his twenties! I don't know how he kept it,” said the third coach.
”Genius is genius. We ordinary people will never understand it. I got my beer belly when I was 34.” The first coach patted his belly.
”Personal factors are important, but the coach's training is also significant. That kind of training must be very reasonable and effective to make a 34-year-old athlete fresh again. Do you know where Aylwin trained after coming back?” asked the second coach.
”You must have heard of Aylwin's coach. His name is Dai Li, the Chinese coach in Los Angeles,” answered the first coach.
The second coach nodded. ”It's him! So he's Aylwin's coach too!”
”Too? There's an athlete other than Aylwin under his training?” asked the first coach.
”Justin Alexander and Shawn Ford,” responded the second coach.
”Alexander had been suspended for years and his condition is similar to Alexander, but he is younger than Aylwin. He also returned back to his peak time not long after coming back. It seems that Dai Li is an expert in helping those athletes who haven't played games for a long time to come back,” the third coach commented.
”What I'm concerned is that all three have the possibility of winning Olympic gold medals judging from their results. That will be awesome if they all could win championships! There are only a few gold medals in track events, right? It's incredible to cultivate one Olympian, but he might have three in just one Olympic Games!” The first coach heaved a deep sigh.
”That's impossible. You know how hard it is to win a championship. If that Chinese coach could make it, then he is definitely the best track coach in the United States!” said the second coach.
But the first shook his head. ”Not only in the US; in the world!”
”Hush! You two keep your voices down in case Sebastian...” the third one reminded them.
...
In the meeting room, a group of coaches were sitting around a table. Like Sebastian, they were all recruited by the USA Track and Field to take charge of different events.
Kevin, the vice coach of the US national team who presided over the meeting, waved a sheet of paper and said, ”We have held training matches for three days consecutively, and the results are in your hands. The results of the training match basically reflect the real level of the athletes.”
”Our scientific research group has input all the results into a computer and compared the statistics with our counterparts in other countries. The comparison had calculated the probability of each athlete of winning gold, silver, and bronze medals in the Olympic Games. Look at page two. Here is the result of the comparison.”
”Surely, the computer's calculation can't be taken seriously, considering the many variables in real races. However, the calculation results can be regarded as a reference indicator, which can help us see more clearly and intuitively in which events we might win medals. Today we'll discuss the probability of the various results. Begin with the 100-meter dash!”
They all looked down at the papers in their hands. One coach who was in charge of sprint frowned as he said, ”I think the probability of winning is too small generally. Taking Warton as an example, his probability is only 12.5%. We know that his best result now is within 9.80 seconds, which means that he surely can win the championship now since Kittell retired. How could his chance only be 12.5%! The same with Alexander. He is only 12.8%, higher than Warton, but we all know he lost to Warton in the qualification trial. Besides in the three practice matches, Alexander won only once while Warton twice. I don't think the result is reasonable.”
Kevin listened to what he said and explained, ”The first thing you said is about the low probability calculated by the computer. According to the calculation, all the athletes put together have one hundred percent chance of winning the championship, so the figure will be small for each athlete. But if we add all three probabilities of our runners, the figure is greater than 33.3%, which means that the US will have a one in three chance of winning the gold medal.”
”As for the second point, about Alexander's winning probability being higher than Warton's. The fact is that during the data collection, the statistics of athletes' experience and honor also will be included. Alexander has attended many international games, including Olympic Games. He has more experience than Warton. Therefore, the winning probability of Warton is smaller than Alexander in comparison.”
After hearing Kevin's explanation, the sprint coach shook his head soon and said, ”That's not true either. Shawn Ford's winning probability is 18.1% in 200-meter sprint. That's too high! As far as I'm aware, Ford only attended one World Championship, and no other international competitions. Both Mayer and Foster have richer international experience than him, so why are their probabilities still lower than his?”
Kevin continued to explain, ”It's because Ford's most recent three practice matches were so excellent! Three times were all within 19.90 seconds. His state can't be better now. Especially since he is much faster than others during the first bend.”
”This result is a half second slower than Kittell in his peak, but it's fast enough. Since Kittell retired, the level of sprint events has declined a lot in the world, especially the 200-meter event with few games and specialized competitors. All the champion results last year were over 20 seconds. Even a 20.10-second result would have won the world championship. Considering this, Shawn Ford definitely has more probability of winning now.”
”How about Aylwin? 55%? His winning probability is higher than all the other competitors put together, right?” that coach asked at once.
But Kevin smiled and asked him instead, ”Don't you think Aylwin could win the fourth championship consecutively? I'd say 55% is too small.”
That coach didn't know how to respond. There was no doubt that Jimmy Aylwin was the most promising athlete in the national team this year. As the king of the 400-meter event, Aylwin's state now was as good as it had been four years ago. Winning the fourth Olympic championship consecutively had become a national consensus.
...
Leaning back in his chair, Sebastian wasn't listening to the discussion of the other coaches, but was thinking of something else entirely.
So many days have passed, but why there is no any new information from Franklin's Lab? The Olympic Games will begin soon!
Sebastian looked at the report in his hands. The probabilities of the report made him so anxious.
Aylwin, Alexander, and Ford—they are all still in a good state. If they remain that way, they will all probably win gold medals. The Olympic championship! D*mn it! How did Dai Li get such a kind of powerful drug? If I had it, I certainly could create an army of world champions!
I can't wait on Franklin's Lab now. I have to take the initiative instead of waiting so passively! Whether or not it works, I must talk to these three athletes. Maybe I can get some information about the new drug if I am lucky.
...
Mission: Gather information about the new drug.
Target one: Justin Alexander.
Sebastian walked up to Alexander with a big smile.
”Hey Justin, nice day today, right?” Sebastian greeted Justin blandly.
Alexander just snorted without saying anything and turned away as soon as he saw Sebastian.
After all, the two were at odds.