Chapter 1195 (1/2)
”Boss, this is the analysis of Lehman Brothers. All the data listed are exclusive information...”
Andy looks at Michael Dior, the chief analyst of his think tank, nods a little and takes over the data.
The first essential course for a real analyst is to become an accountant, understand the company's financial statements (if you want to speculate, you'd better understand them, which contains many secrets), understand the interest game behind various accounting treatments, and restore the company's real financial situation.
Then it is necessary to investigate the sales, management and other aspects of the enterprise operation in person. Bull analysts should also have their own exclusive sources of information. The higher the level of information source, the more valuable the information obtained.
When Lehman launched its brilliant performance report and self rescue plan, Michael Dior saw through the problem behind the performance report that Lehman was incredibly optimistic about the valuation of its assets. Through in-depth investigation and information collection, it confirmed that Lehman had reached the end of its life.
Looking at these materials, Andy takes a satisfied look at Michael. Although there is a picture of financial reporting and accounting manipulation in the market, experienced accountants will still be a touchstone and a significant role for a good enterprise.
”That is to say, the secret work that Lehman is doing now, the more than 30 billion assets that REI, the new company founded, injected and stripped from the book of the head office, packaged and restructured in various ways, only 60% - 65% of its value, or even less, and almost 10 billion holes that they are prepared to use to mine people?”
Andy shakes the information in his hand, looks at Michael Dior with a sneer, and asks. Now he knows why Paulson would rather watch the collapse of Lehman than do it. NIMA, this is to kill people. Whoever takes over, he will lose blood!
”Yes, boss, what's more, this 10 billion plus hole has nothing to do with garbage subprime loan, and nothing to do with CDO. It's related assets of commercial real estate!”
With Michael's words just coming to an end, all the think tanks who have not seen Andy's report have changed their faces. Take a breath of cool air. NIMA, this is a ”mine”. It can kill any force.
Commercial real estate is non residential real estate such as office buildings, apartment buildings, hotels, industrial land, shopping malls / shopping centers.
If all of these assets belong to Lehman, it's good to say that the key lies in Lehman's idea of profiteering at the beginning of the discovery of subprime loans. In January 2007, it acquired a real estate trust company, raised 500 million US dollars, and forcibly acquired the company worth 22.2 billion US dollars with 44 times of leverage.
Want to take advantage of this company, which has 350 residential areas and 86000 houses in the United States and Germany, especially the high-priced houses in major metropolises.
Top touch!
This is a big death! What's the real estate price now? It's entirely cabbage prices. Even if the prices in places like New York and Manhattan don't fall or even rise, but there is only such a small area, the key is Lehman's total loan of 60 billion yuan. Only these real estate can't be sold out, and the collapse of Lehman is certain.
Andy looks at the feasibility plan on the last page of the data, and he can't help thinking. His right hand keeps touching his chin, and his eyes squint slightly. In a moment, his cold eyes flash and make up his mind.
”I'm not interested in these real estate right now. Although it's very cheap, it's still not enough to force them to death. First, hedge Lehman's stock price, concentrate on shorting it, release information, spread the data above, and let all companies interested in Lehman's assets sweat!”
Andy's words shocked everyone in the meeting room. My boss, this is to detonate a mine! Say no, it will blow up the whole Lehman. If Lehman can't hold on to the short position and directly lies down and goes bankrupt, it will make a fire.