Part 26 (1/2)

Once the proceedings were concluded, the negotiators, following the Pfelung custom, sat together in a muddy, shallow pool (the new acting amba.s.sador and Max in bathing suits) and spoke at some length about various rivers, lakes, and bays each had visited, including the clarity of the water, the salinity, whether the bottom was muddy or sandy or rocky, and the amplitude of the tides. Max had very little to contribute in this regard, having spent most of his life in s.p.a.ce, but he was able to relate a few drunken sh.o.r.e leave frolics in and around bodies of water.

That ritual completed, the doctor signed and the commissar himself stained the treaty the very afternoon of the day on which discussions began. The commissar's ”staining” of the treaty was accomplished in the standard Pfelung manner by producing a small quant.i.ty of the dye the Pfelung squirted into the water to help them evade predators, coating his left ventral fin with the ink, and then leaving a print of the inked fin on the doc.u.ment.

The diplomatic proceedings concluded, Max and Sahin returned to the s.h.i.+p.

”I'm certainly very pleased that we obtained this treaty and very gratified at the most complimentary signal sent by the admiral, but I think that people are making a planet out of a meteoroid,” the doctor said over dinner with Max in the captain's day cabin. Tonight's dinner was private; the s.h.i.+p's official celebratory dinner would be the following night, to give the cooks time to lay on something special. Another larger dinner would be held once the admiral and an element of the Task Force arrived in several days.

”I know all about the Pfelung's nice little navy and their staggeringly brilliant fighter pilots and their strategic location, but the admiral's uncustomarily effusive praise and all of the hoopla makes it seem as though this treaty may actually be the key to winning the war.”

Max had to swallow another bite of a truly splendid blackberry cobbler before he could answer. ”Old Hit 'em Hard did pen some very kind words-about you and the treaty at any rate,” said Max. ”Of course, he also pointed out that by entering the Pfelung system without their consent, I directly violated my orders to 'respect all recognized territorial s.p.a.ce claims,' and that the judge advocate was going to have to conduct a formal inquiry to determine whether I am to go before a court martial.”

”I am quite certain that the inquiry will find you utterly blameless,” said Sahin with a knowing smile. ”Given that you won what is likely to become a famous victory and that you did so on the heels of destroying an enemy heavy battlecruiser and two smaller wars.h.i.+ps, and taking or destroying three freighters and their valuable cargo, they can hardly do anything else.”

”You don't know Admiral Hornmeyer. He once court martialed a captain-a full captain by rank, mind you-for crossing the boundary of his designated patrol area to pursue a possible enemy contact. The court busted him down two grades. Last I heard, he was overseeing a fuel depot in the Groombridge 34 system. No, my friend, I would not put it past the admiral to haul me before a court martial and then see that I get busted down to ensign and get sent to the bas.e.m.e.nt of the E Ring of the run-down Old Pentagon on Earth to work in the Department for the Production of Zippers, b.u.t.tons, Snaps, Hooks, and Other Clothing Fasteners.”

”You are practicing on my credulous simplicity. Tell me truly: there is no such department, is there?”

”Well, I must admit that I've never heard of such a department and that I made that name up. But I know enough about the military bureaucracy that there is a department very much like it somewhere. I guarantee it, even if the name may be somewhat different.”

”I thought so. Anyway, as we were saying, I think your worries are exaggerated. By my reading of the situation, you are a naval hero, and I cannot imagine bringing a hero up on charges.”

”Time will tell. My mind will not be at ease, though, until the inquiry is complete and I have a formal exoneration in writing. Going back to the admiral's remarks, though, I must disagree with you. I don't think that he overstated the case even to the slightest degree. In fact, I am increasingly convinced that you do not appreciate the strategic value of what just happened here.”

”You now how obtuse I can be about strategy. Perhaps you could enlighten me.”

”First, you understand that we have had very few allies in this war. Most of the independent human powers have stayed out, even though the Krag have promised to exterminate them too, eventually. And until now, none of the nonhumans have allied with us. You know, being pushy, upstart monkeys and all that, we're not terribly popular out here in the wider galaxy. So, the Pfelung have opened the door to more nonhumans, especially since the galactic community holds the Pfelung in generally high esteem, in contrast to us.”

”So, the Pfelung may help sway galactic opinion.”

”Precisely, Doctor. We need allies, and the Pfelung are a good start. And then there is the immediate tactical benefit. Our finned friends declare war against the Krag, which the Ruling Hatchery did about an hour ago, and-as an a.s.sociated Power under the treaty-they take over the defense of five whole border sectors, freeing up more than five dozen destroyers; eleven or twelve cruisers; six or so battles.h.i.+ps; and at least two, if not three, carriers to stiffen our defenses elsewhere or to use offensively. The s.h.i.+ps are in motion as we speak.

And the Pfelung forces not needed for defense can supplement operational maneuver groups operating with a radius of a 150 light years, maybe 300, depending on how much of a safety margin they insist on for getting home in time to mate.”

”I can see where that might make a difference. Absolutely.”

”I know that you said you understood the strategic location of this system, but I suspect you were seeing it only defensively. Think of the offensive possibilities.” Ways of taking the war to the Krag were always foremost in Max's mind.

”Just as this system represented a shortcut for them around our defenses and directly into the heart of our s.p.a.ce, it's a shortcut for us in the other direction. The jump point from this system that our cutter blocked, when it repairs itself, reaches to a point on their coreward flank-a flank that intelligence tells us is very poorly provided with battle stations, cannon platforms, system missile batteries, or other fixed defenses because it faces the hitherto neutral Pfelung a.s.sociation.

”Of course, seventy or so days is plenty of time to get s.h.i.+ps in there, but it's a lot easier to punch through defensive formations of s.h.i.+ps alone than to punch through a defensive formation of s.h.i.+ps integrated with a network of heavy defensive installations. We take the forces freed up, combine them with the additional forces our allies can supply, and use this system as the invasion route, and that lets us go on the offensive in this theater. We can start pus.h.i.+ng them back for a change.”

”You seem excited at the prospect.”

”d.a.m.n straight, I am. And here's the kicker. That offensive has a chance to finally succeed because we now have a forward source for fuel that we don't have to haul all the way from the Core Systems or produce with separation s.h.i.+ps. Two-thirds of our logistics capability is devoted to fuel, you know. If we had a fuel source close to this front, it would cure the bottleneck in transporting munitions, food, medical supplies, spares-everything.

”Then, over time, the Pfelung industrial capacity can become an a.s.set. Given several months to retool, they could make spare parts, missiles, ammunition, and so on. Finally, don't forget that they have some of the best s.h.i.+pyards in Known s.p.a.ce. There's no reason they couldn't repair or even build Union wars.h.i.+ps out here. As you recall, that's an option under the treaty to be negotiated at a later date. If we could increase s.h.i.+p production 10 or 20 percent, it could make a huge difference.”

”Well, then, things are starting to make a bit more sense to me. But I must be missing something. I can see how all of these facts mean that this treaty is very, very important. But if I am any judge of official language-and I like to think that I am-the admiral attributes to this pact greater significance than can be explained by these things. I am becoming increasingly convinced that there is something important that I do not know.”

”What you do not know, Doctor, is that we are losing the war.”

The statement, delivered in a calm, matter-of-fact tone, struck Dr. Sahin like a punch to the solar plexus. The words hung in silence. For once, the doctor was aware of the sounds of the s.h.i.+p: the ever-present hum of the life-support systems, the minute vibration imparted by the fusion reactor's coolant pumps, the almost subliminal babble of the s.h.i.+p's main internal comm channel, which Max kept turned on in his cabin day and night, at this moment summoning the perpetually late-for-duty Ensign Friedrichs to his station in Auxiliary Fire Control. He perceived keenly the sounds of life in s.p.a.ce, in the way that a pleasing background music that has always been present leaps into relief after the sounding of a funeral dirge's dark, jarring, opening chord.

Knowing that disbelief was evident on his face, the doctor struggled to find words to give it voice. After several seconds, he managed. ”But Max, the news reports! I hear them daily. I see the headlines on the NewsWeb: broad offenses meeting victory, enemy attacks stopped and turned back with heavy loss, war production surging beyond expectation, new s.h.i.+p and weapons designs being introduced continually.”

”Lies,” Max said bitterly. ”Well, maybe not lies exactly, but propaganda, clever 'information management,' the selective transmission of some facts combined with the selective withholding of others. If not blatant untruths, then they are at the least misleading. Even with the level of command access and the security clearance I have as the captain of a rated wars.h.i.+p, I have to read between the lines, look at the raw data, locate the engagements on a star plot, and watch as they inch closer and closer to the Core Systems week after week.”

”I still don't believe you.”

”All right. I'll prove it to you with evidence that you have already gathered, facts you already know. Set aside the 'victories' that you've heard of from outside sources. Think only of the fleet engagements of which you have some more direct knowledge-what people said around Travis Station about battles that were fought in this theater. You know, where people who had seen the battle or fought in it or received unfiltered reports about it were talking. In the years that you have been posted to this area, how many of those battles were victories for the Union? You're a trained scientist-evaluate objectively the best data you have at your disposal. What's your conclusion?”

The doctor thought carefully for at least half a minute. ”I recall there being general talk of thirteen fleet actions. Of those, my impression is that we won two.”

While the doctor was thinking, Max was ticking off the battles in his mind. He nodded at the doctor's answer. ”I'm impressed, Bram. We might make a real Navy man out of you yet. Yes. That is exactly right. Two of those eleven defeats could, arguably, be scored for the Union as strategic victories, as we turned back Krag attacks and remained in possession of the battle area, though losing more s.h.i.+ps as measured by tonnage than we destroyed, but that's a fine point. So, as far as we can verify from our own experience, we are losing the war in this theater of operations.”

The doctor was not ready to concede the point. ”But speaking as a scientist, I must point out that our sample might not be representative. Things might be going less well here than in other areas. I know that I have heard the former commander, 'By the Book' Bus.h.i.+nko, spoken of in unflattering terms. Other commanders in other areas might be having more success.”

”Bus.h.i.+nko was better than a lot of people think. Some of the other theatres have had worse than him by far, although I think the current crop is pretty good all around. No, from what I can tell from unfiltered reports, things here are going about as well here as they are everywhere else. Although we are putting up stubborn resistance and imposing huge losses on the enemy, and although we haven't had anything like the lightning series of defeats we suffered early in the war, we are slowly and inexorably falling back, losing system after system. The enemy had nearly a hundred years to build up a huge reserve of s.h.i.+ps, to stockpile immense caches of ammunition, fuel, and supplies, and to plan his campaigns and diplomatic maneuvers step by step.

”We, on the other hand, were caught entirely with our pants down. Our forces were out of position, our economy wasn't on a war footing, and we had no training infrastructure or reserve of skilled manpower adequate for total war. We were caught by surprise and have been improvising from the very first hour. Sure, we've made great strides, but with the systems we've lost, with the casualties we've already suffered, with what the Gynophage did to our population and birthrate, and based on our estimates of the enemy's industrial capacity and his rate of population increase, they will eventually overwhelm us.”

”What about the victory we just won? Will that not make a difference?

”Some. Not enough. I don't have access to the highest level information, but what I can access is close enough for some rough calculations-I've spent enough time doing rotations as an Intel officer to know how to turn the raw data into estimates. The Krag have a roughly 15 to 18 percent industrial advantage and somewhere between a 50 and 100 percent population growth advantage. Remember, they don't just look like rats, they breed like rats too. Our best intel from prisoners is that they give birth to litters of six after a fifty-two day gestation period. Having the Pfelung on our side will-in maybe a year or so-make up almost a quarter of the difference in industrial capacity. The only way we can win, absent some miracle, is to acquire some more allies.”

”But if they have had such a decided advantage from the beginning, why have they not been able to win the war in more than thirty years?”

”Time and distance. When they attacked, the border between the Krag and the Union was seventeen hundred light years from the Core Systems. Now, it's just over a thousand. You can't just go zipping through s.p.a.ce any which way you feel like. You need to take and hold star systems-star systems with jump points. And you can't just jump into a defended system with a jump point because-since a jump point is a fixed point in s.p.a.ce-it can be defended with heavy pulse cannon batteries and ma.s.sive missile emplacements, all zeroed in on the jump point and ready to fire on thirty seconds notice. You jump into a defended system, you're dead.

”So, if you want to take that system, you have to take months to send heavy s.h.i.+ps, using compression drive across interstellar s.p.a.ce at low c multiples to take the jump point. And very often, you are detected a good way out, and a task force is sent to intercept you in deep s.p.a.ce. That's where those famous battles out in interstellar s.p.a.ce come from.

”Say you win. Once you've taken the system, it takes more months to get the infrastructure jumped into that system and set up to get those s.h.i.+ps fueled and repaired and reinforced and provisioned so they can cross to the next system, and more months to cross s.p.a.ce to get to the next system, and so on. Step by step. Even when the enemy is kicking your a.s.s, it takes a year, maybe two, for him to advance twenty pa.r.s.ecs.

”We've held him to far less than that. We do have some advantages: mainly, they didn't have as much success as they expected early in the war because the War of the Fenestrian Succession left us better prepared than they expected. That invalidated a considerable portion of their war plan, and the Krag are not good at improvising. We are; it's one of our strengths. So, we have been playing for time, trying to stave off defeat until we can convince enough other powers to declare war against the Krag to turn the tide. If nothing changes, my estimate is that we have another four to six years before the disparity of forces becomes so overwhelming that our defense will collapse.”

”And then?”

”We won't have enough forces to defend all the necessary jump points, and the Krag will find a direct route to the Core Systems. Once that happens, they will be exterminating all life on Earth and Alphacen and Bravo and Nouvelle Acadiana and all the rest in a matter of days. I've heard rumors of a contingency plan involving sending a small core of survivors in fast s.h.i.+ps to plant a new human civilization beyond the reach of the Krag somewhere in another part of the galaxy, but I don't hold out much hope of that working. I've been hunted by them, you know. The Krag are relentless. These people would be found and killed like all the rest. The human race would die.”

”Not if I can help it.”