Volume Ii Part 16 (1/2)
The number of children to 1000 marriages is--
1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table
In the sixteen departments where there are from 68 to 107 people on a square mile................ 4188 4226 3780
In the sixteen departments where there are from 107 to 125 people on a square mile................ 4374 4332 3855
In the sixteen departments where there are from 134 to 155 people on a square mile................ 4484 4416 3914
We will give another instance, if possible still more decisive. We will take the three departments of France which ought, on Mr Sadler's principle, to be the lowest in fecundity of all the eighty-five, saving only that in which Paris stands; and we will compare them with the three departments in which the fecundity ought, according to him, to be greater than in any other department of France, two only excepted. We will compare Bas Rhin, Rhone, and Nord, with Lozere, Landes, and Indre.
In Lozere, Landes, and Indre, the population is from 68 to 84 on the square mile or nearly so. In Bas Rhin, Rhone, and Nord, it is from 300 to 417 on the square mile. There cannot be a more overwhelming answer to Mr Sadler's theory than the table which we subjoin:
The number of births to 1000 marriages is--
1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table
In the three departments in which there are from 68 to 84 people on the square mile............... 4372 4390 3890
In the three departments in which there are from 300 to 417 people on the square mile............... 4457 4510 4060
These are strong cases. But we have a still stronger case. Take the whole of the third, fourth, and fifth divisions into which Mr Sadler has portioned out the French departments. These three divisions make up almost the whole kingdom of France. They contain seventy-nine out of the eighty-five departments. Mr Sadler has contrived to divide them in such a manner that, to a person who looks merely at his averages, the fecundity seems to diminish as the population thickens. We will separate them into two parts instead of three. We will draw the line between the department of Gironde and that of Herault. On the one side are the thirty-two departments from Cher to Gironde inclusive. On the other side are the forty-six departments from Herault to Nord inclusive. In all the departments of the former set, the population is under 132 on the square mile. In all the departments of the latter set, it is above 132 on the square mile. It is clear that, if there be one word of truth in Mr Sadler's theory, the fecundity in the latter of these divisions must be very decidedly smaller than in the former. Is it so? It is, on the contrary, greater in all the three tables. We give the result.
The number of births to 1000 marriages is--
1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table
In the thirty-two departments in which there are from 86 to 132 people on the square mile....... 4210 4199 3760
In the forty-seven departments in which there are from 132 to 417 people on the square mile........ 4250 4224 3766
This fact is alone enough to decide the question. Yet it is only one of a crowd of similar facts. If the line between Mr Sadler's second and third division be drawn six departments lower down, the third and fourth divisions will, in all the tables, be above the second. If the line between the third and fourth divisions be drawn two departments lower down, the fourth division will be above the third in all the tables. If the line between the fourth and fifth division be drawn two departments lower down, the fifth will, in all the tables, be above the fourth, above the third, and even above the second. How, then, has Mr Sadler obtained his results? By packing solely. By placing in one compartment a district no larger than the Isle of Wight; in another, a district somewhat less than Yorks.h.i.+re; in the third, a territory much larger than the island of Great Britain.
By the same artifice it is that he has obtained from the census of England those delusive averages which he brings forward with the utmost ostentation in proof of his principle. We will examine the facts relating to England, as we have examined those relating to France.
If we look at the counties one by one, Mr Sadler's principle utterly fails. Hertfords.h.i.+re with 251 on the square mile; Worcester with 258; and Kent with 282, exhibit a far greater fecundity than the East Riding of York, which has 151 on the square mile; Monmouths.h.i.+re, which has 145; or Northumberland, which has 108. The fecundity of Staffords.h.i.+re, which has more than 300 on the square mile, is as high as the average fecundity of the counties which have from 150 to 200 on the square mile.
But, instead of confining ourselves to particular instances, we will try ma.s.ses.
Take the eight counties of England which stand together in Mr Sadler's list, from c.u.mberland to Dorset inclusive. In these the population is from 107 to 150 on the square mile. Compare with these the eight counties from Berks to Durham inclusive, in which the population is from 175 to 200 on the square mile. Is the fecundity in the latter counties smaller than in the former? On the contrary, the result stands thus:
The number of children to 100 marriages is--
In the eight counties of England, in which there are from 107 to 146 people on the square mile............. 388
In the eight counties of England, in which there are from 175 to 200 people on the square mile..............402
Take the six districts from the East Riding of York to the County of Norfolk inclusive. Here the population is from 150 to 170 on the square mile. To these oppose the six counties from Derby to Worcester inclusive. The population is from 200 to 260. Here again we find that a law, directly the reverse of that which Mr Sadler has laid down, appears to regulate the fecundity of the inhabitants.
The number of children to 100 marriages is--
In the six counties in which there are from 150 to 170 people on the square mile................................392