Part 13 (1/2)

Technologies and employment 145.

We remember the amount of paper work we had to do to get government permission for purchase of computers by the Indian s.p.a.ce Research Organisation (ISRO).

For procuring each computer, there was a long series of notes, meetings, questions and answers!

The country has come a long way since then. In fact, the opening up of the computer front since the mid80s has resulted in India's onebilliondollar software exports today. Computers have increased efficiency and service, the computerization of railway ticketing being a notable example. There is of course specific displacement of workers in the real or virtual sense for example, a type of clerical staff may not be further recruited because computerization has helped streamline the paperwork. The existing workface thus needs to be trained in new skills.

So far the transition has been relatively smooth, but to sustain this process it is essential for the government, the organized sector, and even trade and labour unions to antic.i.p.ate such changes and prepare our workface. We have the success story of j.a.pan before us as an example.

In the coming years, requirements for rapid changes in the skills of a large number of people in periods of say three to five years may become a continuous feature when newer technologies are introduced into the economy. Such rapid changes will occur in all sectors, underlining how the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are interwined. In the agriculture sector there will be better optimization of input resources like seeds, soil conditioning, fertilizermicronutrient mixes, pesticides and so on, as well as changes in the overall agriculture management. The agriculture sector may also use information technology much more intensely than it does now, be it in the use of remote sensing through satellites for regular monitoring of crops and soil conditions or water resources,or for better weather forecasts through satellites and groundborne systems, or in the use of modern communications to be in closer touch with old or new markets. Water quality may be monitored more carefully in the future whether for human or animal consumption. Raped improvements in advanced sensors would make it possible to have such sensing systems at affordable prices in many of our aicultural sectors.

In the industrial and manufacturing sector, of course, the use of senors, and modern electronics and information technology will be a continual feature requiring 146.

raped reorientation of the skills of not only the workforce but also the entire management including board level operations.

Installation of IT systems for all these sectors, training persons at all levels and maintaining and improving their skills would be a major service industry.

India and the services sector The agricultural sector in India accounts for 32.7 percent of GDP and has an annual rate of increase of about 3.5 percent. The secondary sector consists of manufacturing, power, etc.,and forms 25.8 per cent or the GDP with a growth rate of 5.9 per cent . Services like trade, storage, transport, communication and finance are the traditional components of the tertiary or service sector. Among the newer service that have emerged are advertising, marketing management, and various consultancies. The services sector provides essential inputs to the other two sectors and so they are dependent on the efficient operation of this sector which in India is now about 40 per cent of the GCP. Employment in the services sector covers a large range of occupations involving relatively little investment in capital equipment. There is also a great potential for exporting services.

Some of the sectors considered to be of great value for India in the TIFAC reports are: Financial services Marketing communication services ( i.e. advertising, media, consultancy and infotainment) Marketing logistics, trading and distribution Trade promotion services Human resources development Technical and management consultancy Testing, certification and calibration services Government administration Security services There are also other important activities. To name a few: Repair and maintenance 147.

Tourism and hotels Leisure and sports resorts Cultural activities Old age care services Preventive health care services We shall examine a few sectors to a.s.sess future requirements.

Financial services The financial sector includes a large number of inst.i.tutions such as commercial banks, financial term lending banks, insurance companies, capital markets like the stock exchange, and so on . In the last twenty five years the number of branches of commercial banks increased sevenfold, to about 65000 in 1995. Aggregate deposits of commercial banks have increased by two and a half times in the last six years, to Rs.4500 billion in January 1996.

The gross value added to GCP by insurance services increased at the rate of 7.5 per cent during 198081 and 1993 94, but only 22 per cent of all insurable persons are covered by life insurance. The number of persons covered will increase significantly due to population increase, economic growth and the rise in the magnitude of risks due to rapid urbanization. Currently less than 1 per cent of the population has any Dealings with nonlife insurance business, but the demand on these services is bound to increase as manufacturing, trade and other activities grow. Additionally more and more people will go in for personal accident insurance, medical coverage and other such forms of protection .The business in nonlife insurance even currently is increasing at the rate of 20 per cent per annum and is expected to accelerate to 30 per cent in the next decade.

Despite voluminous growth in the banking and insurance sectors, processing and transactions have been carried out by largely manual means. A national network of banking and the insurance business has to emerge. This lack has adversely affected efficiency and is a major cause of the high rates charged for financial services. The introduction of IT for various operations at the earliest has become a necessity. This means use of computers for near total electronic data management and the use of telecommunications and multimedia data, adopting a total systems approach. Some 148.

modern technologies like Automated Teller Machines (ATM), automatic cheque clearing systems, telephonic banking, credit cards, and electronic fund transfers are being introduce in a small way and will be prevalent in most of the banks in the coming years.

In other financial services, including insurance services, very little computerization has taken place. This lack of IT resources has resulted in poor services to customers and inadequate controls leading to delinquency in loans .In capital markets, both primary and secondary, only low levels of technology are in use .In primary markets the lack of computerization and communication facilities results in long delays in the financial of subscription of new issues. The Bombay and National Stock Exchange have recently adopted screen based trading.

At the lower end of banking, that is rural banking, many of these technologies may not have relevance except for the wealthy, at least for a decade or more .The problem in the bulk of our village communities is to generate money and make it available to workers, not merely for their subsistence but to carry out some economic activities of their own with small investments. Financial or lending systems for such poor rural folk could be patterned on the 'grameen bank systems' successfully operated in Bangladesh.

Rural telephone access either through RAX (Rural Exchange) systems developed by C DoT or through wireless in the loop systems will be useful in extending the range of operation.

Marketing communication services Marketing communication which comprises services such as advertising, market research and entertainment, depends primarily on the stage of economic development and the nature of the target groups .The Indian economy has been growing at an average rate of 5 per cent from 198080 resulting in a middle cla.s.s population of 200250 million. Though currently 70 per cent of the population is rural, by the year 2020 this figure should decline to 55 per cent the literacy rate is expected to rises to 80 per cent. Because of these trends there would be major s.h.i.+fts in marketing communication. The strategy now is to focus on innovation and create new needs.

Market research and market communication have so far been confined to a handful of consumer goods like soaps, cosmetics, toothpastes, beverage, and select food 149.

products.They are now being applied to white goods like television sets, refrigerators, and was.h.i.+ng machines. In rural areas too the purchase of these goods is on the increase.

Marketing of agricultural inputs and appliances is also going up .It is estimated that nearly 50 per cent of the purchase of consumer durables will be in rural India against less than 30 per cent today. Also in the agricultural sector, many private ent.i.ties are likely to enter into the marketing of seeds, fertilizer mixes, pesticides, and a variety of agricultural tools and implements .The demand for India specific domestic appliances like idly mixers and chapattimaking appliances or packed foods and sweets is likely to increase and these will be sold at compet.i.tive prices. Foreign products may soon be competing with Indian goods just as our goods will be exported to a number of countries.

Demand for quality and standards The sale of an increased volume of product would also create a trend of market segmentation for high quality products. People would demand newer features, like greater user friendliness or greater portability or better aesthetics or looks.

There are also other demands, which are of a technical nature. They are: greater reliability, tending towards zero repair over the products ' life time, or lower energy consumption, or lesser noise or radiation emission, or lower levels of environment pollution, etc. These demand new standards of performance and greater technological inputs. Companies themselves would introduce improved features to maintain a companies edge. In India too, such trends will be on the increase and local business and industries will have to learn to adjust to them. Marketing communication by foreign companies even through satellite based TV and other information services will also affect India consumer preference even in rural India. Presently, India industries or markets or consumer follow trends which are often a decade or more old in the developed world. This has to change.

Value systems in marketing communication A question that arises is regarding the place of value system in marketing communication. Is it necessary to pursue this 'one upmans.h.i.+p', characteristic of Necessary? Can we not rid ourselves of the advertis.e.m.e.nt culture? If the social or commercial purpose of advertis.e.m.e.nt is only to provide technical and commercial 150.

information to the people, why not give information freely on demand or display it in suitable public places in an inexpensive manner, as the advertis.e.m.e.nt costs are relay finally borne by the consumer himself.

On the face of it, many of these ideas are wonderful. But in real life the behavior pattern of people are very complex and there are many individual variations. Not everybody has the patience to thumb through a directory to search out different products .Therefore , advertising becomes a useful source of information . Rural and urban dwellers, poor and rich , literate and illiterate , all require a flow of information in various forms to know ,to choose and to feel that they are not being left behind . Besides they help people save time which would be used in searching out information . Regarding the contents and the ethics of these message, most healthy societies learn how to come to a dynamic equilibrium.

It is very interesting to note that as the physical production in the agriculture and manufacturing sector expands, the demands on marketing communication grow, thus providing people additional employment opportunities. This is an area which can be given a thrust.

The future scenario of marketing communication Among the newer technologies which are likely to enter this area are: composing multi addition portable IT technologies automatic language translation hand held terminals satellite digital audio broadcasting three dimensional workstations exemption for access control system for viewer censoring stereo music audio and interactive random data graphical user interface .

It is essential that Indian industries work in advance to acquire or develop technologies in these areas so that they can be market leaders in India and possibly export to other countries as well . If they do not take action now, it is likely that those in need of providing such services will import products. The business volumes in many of these areas range from a few tens of crores to several thousand crores per year .Table 8.1 provides a brief picture.

151.

TABLE 8.1.

Projected Volume of Communication Business 2020 (.

Annual turnover Rs. crores) 1995 Activity 2020 Marketing services 60 Market research 8001000 3500 Advertising 1800020000 Ma.s.s media: 1500 press (Circulation /sale) 65007000 1500 TV (Software) 70008000 200 Cable operations 80001000.

(Annual turnover Rs. Crores) Entertainment media: 1000 Cinema (production & 40005000 collections) 300 Music 25003000.

35 Multimedia 10001200 152.

35000 Telecom Telephone &Data 600000 700000.

Notes: ( All estimates are at 1).

1995.

prices.

( ) Cinema includes production meant for Cable and TV .

2.

There is some overlap between media and entertainment .

TIFAC.