Part 21 (2/2)

We live in exciting times. Science and technology are opening up worlds to us that we could previously only dream about. When looking at the future of science, with all its challenges and dangers, I see genuine hope. We will discover more about nature in the coming decades than in all human history combined-many times over.

But it wasn't always that way.

Consider the words of Benjamin Franklin, America's last great scientist/statesman, when he made a prediction not just about the next century but about the next thousand years. In 1780, he noted with regret that men often acted like wolves toward one another, mainly because of the grinding burden of surviving in a harsh world.

He wrote: It is impossible to imagine the height to which may be carried, in a thousand years, the power of man over matter. We may perhaps learn to deprive large ma.s.ses of their gravity, and give them absolute levity, for the sake of easy transport. Agriculture may diminish its labor and double its produce; all diseases may by sure means be prevented or cured, not excepting even that of old age, and our lives lengthened at pleasure even beyond the antediluvian standard.

He was writing at a time when peasants were scratching a bleak existence from the soil, when ox-drawn carts brought rotting produce to the market, when plagues and starvation were a fact of life, and only the lucky few lived beyond the age of forty. (In London in 1750, two-thirds of children died before they reached the age of five.) Franklin lived in a time when it appeared hopeless that one day we might be able to solve these age-old problems. Or, as Thomas Hobbes wrote in 1651, life was ”solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”

But today, well short of Franklin's thousand years, his predictions are coming to pa.s.s.

This faith-that reason, science, and intellect would one day free us of the oppression of the past-was echoed in the work of the Marquis de Condorcet's 1795 Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind, Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind, which some claim is the most accurate prediction of future events ever written. He made a wide variety of predictions, all of which were quite heretical, but all of which came true. He predicted that the colonies of the New World would eventually break free from Europe and then advance rapidly by benefiting from the technology of Europe. He predicted the end of slavery everywhere. He predicted that farms would greatly increase the amount and quality of the food they produced per acre. He predicted that science would increase rapidly and benefit mankind. He predicted that we would be free of the grind of daily life and have more leisure time. He predicted that birth control would one day be widespread. which some claim is the most accurate prediction of future events ever written. He made a wide variety of predictions, all of which were quite heretical, but all of which came true. He predicted that the colonies of the New World would eventually break free from Europe and then advance rapidly by benefiting from the technology of Europe. He predicted the end of slavery everywhere. He predicted that farms would greatly increase the amount and quality of the food they produced per acre. He predicted that science would increase rapidly and benefit mankind. He predicted that we would be free of the grind of daily life and have more leisure time. He predicted that birth control would one day be widespread.

In 1795, it seemed hopeless that these predictions would be fulfilled.

Benjamin Franklin and the Marquis de Condorcet both lived in a time when life was short and brutal and science was still in its infancy. Looking back at these predictions, we can fully appreciate the rapid advances made in science and technology, which created enough bounty and wealth to lift billions out of the savagery of the past. Looking back at the world of Franklin and Condorcet, we can appreciate that, of all the creations of humanity, by far the most important has been the creation of science. Science has taken us from the depths of the swamp and lifted us to the threshold of the stars.

But science does not stand still. As we mentioned earlier, by 2100, we shall have the power of the G.o.ds of mythology that we once wors.h.i.+pped and feared. In particular, the computer revolution should give us the ability to manipulate matter with our minds, the biotech revolution should give us the ability to create life almost on demand and extend our life span, and the nanotech revolution may give us the ability to change the form of objects and even create them out of nothing. And all this may eventually lead to the creation of a planetary Type I civilization. So the generation now alive is the most important ever to walk the surface of the earth, for we will determine if we will reach a Type I civilization or fall into the abyss.

But science by itself is morally neutral. Science is like a double-edged sword. One side of the sword can cut against poverty, disease, and ignorance. But the other side of the sword can cut against people. How this mighty sword is wielded depends on the wisdom of its handlers.

As Einstein once said, ”Science can only determine what is, but not what shall be; and beyond its realm, value judgments remain indispensable.” Science solves some problems, only to create others, but on a higher level.

We saw the raw, destructive side of science during World Wars I and II. The world witnessed in horror how science could bring on ruin and devastation on a scale never seen before, with the introduction of poison gas, the machine gun, firebombings of entire cities, and the atomic bomb. The savagery of the first part of the twentieth century unleashed violence almost beyond comprehension.

But science also allowed humanity to rebuild and rise above the ruin of war, creating even greater peace and prosperity for billions of people. So the true power of science is that it enables us and empowers us-giving us more options. Science magnifies the innovative, creative, and enduring spirit of humanity, as well as our glaring deficiencies.

KEY TO THE FUTURE: WISDOM.

The key, therefore, is to find the wisdom necessary to wield this sword of science. As the philosopher Immanuel Kant once said, ”Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life.” In my opinion, wisdom is the ability to identify the crucial issues of our time, a.n.a.lyze them from many different points of view and perspectives, and then choose the one that carries out some n.o.ble goal and principle.

In our society, wisdom is hard to come by. As Isaac Asimov once said, ”The saddest aspect of society right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” Unlike information, it cannot be dispensed via blogs and Internet chatter. Since we are drowning in an ocean of information, the most precious commodity in modern society is wisdom. Without wisdom and insight, we are left to drift aimlessly and without purpose, with an empty, hollow feeling after the novelty of unlimited information wears off.

But where does wisdom come from? In part, wisdom comes from reasoned and informed democratic debate from opposing sides. This debate is often messy, unseemly, and always raucous, but out of the thunder and smoke emerges genuine insight. In our society, this debate emerges in the form of democracy. As Winston Churchill once observed, ”Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time.”

So democracy is not easy. You have to work at it. George Bernard Shaw once said, ”Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve.”

Today, the Internet, with all its faults and excesses, is emerging as a guardian of democratic freedoms. Issues that were once debated behind closed doors are now being dissected and a.n.a.lyzed on a thousand Web sites.

Dictators live in fear of the Internet, terrified of what happens when their people rise up against them. So today, the nightmare of 1984 1984 is gone, with the Internet changing from an instrument of terror into an instrument of democracy. is gone, with the Internet changing from an instrument of terror into an instrument of democracy.

Out of the cacophony of debate emerges wisdom. But the surest way to enhance vigorous, democratic debate is through education, for only an educated electorate can make decisions on technologies that will determine the fate of our civilization. Ultimately, the people will decide for themselves how far to take this technology, and in what directions it should develop, but only an informed, educated electorate can make these decisions wisely.

Unfortunately, many are woefully ignorant of the enormous challenges that face us in the future. How can we generate new industries to replace the old ones? How will we prepare young people for the job market of the future? How far should we push genetic engineering in humans? How can we revamp a decaying, dysfunctional educational system to meet the challenges of the future? How can we confront global warming and nuclear proliferation?

The key to a democracy is an educated, informed electorate that can rationally and dispa.s.sionately discuss the issues of the day. The purpose of this book is to help start the debate that will determine how this century unfolds.

FUTURE AS A FREIGHT TRAIN.

In summary, the future is ours to create. Nothing is written in stone. As Shakespeare wrote in Julius Caesar, Julius Caesar, ”The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves....” Or, as Henry Ford once said, perhaps less eloquently, ”History is more or less bunk. It's tradition. We don't want tradition. We want to live in the present and the only history that is worth a tinker's d.a.m.n is the history we make today.” ”The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves....” Or, as Henry Ford once said, perhaps less eloquently, ”History is more or less bunk. It's tradition. We don't want tradition. We want to live in the present and the only history that is worth a tinker's d.a.m.n is the history we make today.”

So the future is like a huge freight train barreling down the tracks, headed our way. Behind this train is the sweat and toil of thousands of scientists who are inventing the future in their labs. You can hear the whistle of the train. It says: biotechnology, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and telecommunications. However, the reaction of some is to say, ”I am too old. I can't learn this stuff. I will just lie down and get run over by the train.” However, the reaction of the young, the energetic, and the ambitious is to say, ”Get me on that train! This train represents my future. It is my destiny. Get me in the driver's seat.”

Let us hope that the people of this century use the sword of science wisely and with compa.s.sion.

But perhaps to better understand how we might live in a planetary civilization, it may be instructive to live out a day in the year 2100, to see how these technologies will affect our daily lives as well as our careers and our hopes and dreams.

From Aristotle to Thomas Aquinas, perfection meant wisdom rooted in experience and in the relations.h.i.+ps by which the moral life is learned through example. Our perfection lies not in gene enhancement, but in the enhancement of character.

-STEVEN POST

JANUARY, 2100, 6:15 A.M.

After a night of heavy partying on New Year's Eve, you are sound asleep.

Suddenly, your wall screen lights up. A friendly, familiar face appears on the screen. It's Molly, the software program you bought recently. Molly announces cheerily, ”John, wake up. You are needed at the office. In person. It's important.”

”Now wait a minute, Molly! You've got to be kidding,” you grumble. ”It's New Year's Day, and I have a hangover. What could possibly be so important anyway?”

Slowly you drag yourself out of bed and reluctantly head off to the bathroom. While was.h.i.+ng your face, hundreds of hidden DNA and protein sensors in the mirror, toilet, and sink silently spring into action, a.n.a.lyzing the molecules you emit in your breath and bodily fluids, checking for the slightest hint of any disease at the molecular level.

Leaving the bathroom, you wrap some wires around your head, which allow you to telepathically control your home: you mentally raise the temperature of the apartment, turn on some soothing music, tell the robotic cook in your kitchen to make breakfast and brew some coffee, and order your magnetic car to leave the garage and be ready to pick you up. As you enter the kitchen, you see the mechanical arms of the robotic cook preparing eggs just the way you like them.

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