Part 1 (1/2)
Are we Ruined by the Germans?
by Harold c.o.x.
PREFACE.
The greater part of the contents of this little volume appeared originally in the _Daily Graphic_, in the form of a series of six articles written in criticism of Mr. Ernest Williams's ”Made in Germany.” To these articles Mr. Williams replied in two letters, and to that reply I made a final rejoinder. In the present reproduction this sequence has been abandoned. For the convenience of readers, and for the economy of s.p.a.ce, I have antic.i.p.ated in the text all of Mr. Williams's objections which appeared to me to have any substance, and, in addition, I have modified or omitted phrases, in themselves trivial, upon which he had fastened to build elaborate but unsubstantial retorts. By doing this I have been able to preserve the continuity of my argument and at the same time to cut down a somewhat lengthy rejoinder into a brief concluding chapter. Incidentally a few new points and some further figures have been added to the articles. This arrangement, unfortunately, deprives Mr. Williams's reply of most of its original piquancy; but, in order that my readers may have an opportunity of seeing what the author of ”Made in Germany” was able to say for himself, his letters are reprinted _verbatim_ in an Appendix. I am indebted to the proprietors of the _Daily Graphic_ for their courteous permission to republish the articles, and to the Committee of the Cobden Club for undertaking the republication. I have only to add that the opinions expressed throughout are my own, and that the Cobden Club does not necessarily endorse every one of them.
H. C.
GRAY'S INN, _December, 1896._
ARE WE RUINED BY THE GERMANS?
CHAPTER I.
OUR EXPANDING TRADE.
In a little book recently published, an attempt is made to show that British trade is being knocked to pieces by German compet.i.tion, that already the sun has set on England's commercial supremacy, and that if we are not careful the few crumbs of trade still left to us will be snapped up by Germany. This depressing publication, aptly ent.i.tled ”Made in Germany,” has received the quasi-religious benediction of an enterprising and esoteric journalist, and the puff direct from a sportive ex-Prime Minister. Thus sent off it is sure to be widely circulated, and, being beyond dispute well written, to be also widely read. Unfortunately-such is the nature of the book-it cannot be so widely criticised. It consists largely of quoted statistics and deductions therefrom, and few readers will have the means at hand for verifying the many figures quoted, while fewer still will have the patience to compare them with other figures which the author omits to mention. As a necessary consequence, a large number of persons will believe that Mr. Williams has proved his case, and some of them will jump to the conclusion, which is evidently the conclusion to which Mr.
Williams himself leans, that the only way to prevent the commercial downfall of our country is to reverse the Free Trade policy which we deliberately adopted fifty years ago.
THE ART OF EXAGGERATION.
That may or may not be a wise thing to do, but at least let us be certain before taking action, or before taking thought which is preliminary to action, that we know our facts, and all our facts. The second point is as important as the first. On hastily reading Mr.
Williams's book for the first time, my impression was that he had only erred by overlooking facts which told on the other side. On general grounds, considering the signs of prosperity on every side, it seemed to me impossible that the condition of our foreign trade could be so bad as the author of ”Made in Germany” paints it. A cursory glance at a few staple figures convinced me that my general impression was a sound one, that our trade was not going to the dogs, and that Mr. Williams had only succeeded in producing so gloomy a picture by fixing his gaze on the shadows and shutting his eyes to the sunlight. On this supposition I began a more critical examination of his book, not with a view to refuting his positive statements, but with a view to showing that in spite of the ugly facts which he had, on the whole usefully, brought to light, there were counterbalancing considerations from which we might draw, at any rate, partial consolation. This I propose to do, but in addition I shall be able to show that many of Mr. Williams's alleged ugly facts are not in reality so ugly as he makes them look, and that what he has done, in his eagerness to prove his case, is to so choose his figures and so phrase his sentences as to convey in particular instances an entirely false impression. How this is done will be shown in detail later on. For the present it is sufficient to state that it is done, and that some of the most alarmist statements in ”Made in Germany”
will not bear critical examination. In a word, the author, in his polemical zeal, has sinned both sins-he has suggested the false and he has omitted the true; he has misrepresented, in particular instances, the facts to which he refers, and he has not referred at all to facts which refute his general argument.
THE WHOLE TRUTH.
It is with these that I propose first to deal, with the facts which show that our trade is in a very healthy condition, and that though Germany is also doing well and hitting us hard in some trades, there is no reason to believe that her prosperity is, on the whole, injuring us. And to guard myself, at the outset, against a temptation to which Mr.
Williams has frequently succ.u.mbed-the temptation of picking out years peculiarly favourable to my argument-I propose to take the last ten or the last fifteen years, for which statistics are available, and to give wherever possible the figures for each year in the whole period. The figures that will be here quoted are all taken from official records, except when otherwise stated.
OUR TOTAL TRADE FOR TEN YEARS.
The first point to attack is the question of the total import and export trade of the United Kingdom. The figures are contained in the following table:-
TEN YEARS' TRADE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM
(Exclusive of Bullion and Specie).
In Millions Sterling.
--------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- |1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895 --------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- Total Imports | 350| 362| 388| 428| 421| 435| 423| 405| 408| 417 Total Exports | 269| 281| 299| 316| 328| 309| 292| 277| 274| 286 +----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- Excess of | | | | | | | | | | Imports | | | | | | | | | | over Exports | 81| 81| 89| 112| 93| 126| 132| 128| 134| 131 --------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----