Part 31 (1/2)

From taxation, unproductive and idle people, we have more to fear than most nations; and from an alteration in the manner of thinking, and persons and property leaving the nation, we have as much as any other nation, according to the degree of wealth that we possess; so that, upon the whole, the interior causes of decline are such as it is extremely necessary to guard against in the most attentive manner.

In respect to the exterior causes, we are exempt entirely from some, from others we are not; and, in one case, we have exterior causes for hope that no nation ever yet had.

The advancement of other nations, their enmity and envy, are full as likely to operate against this nation as against any other that ever existed; but as we owe none of our superiority to geographical situa- [end of page #192] tion like the Greek islands, the Delta of Egypt, and borders of the Mediterranean Sea, we run no risk of any discovery in geography, or in navigation, operating much to our disadvantage.

We are not so far advanced before other nations in arts as to have any great reason to dread that their advancement will be our ruin; but still we must allow, that a number of external causes may combine to bring us to their level, when the effects of our present wealth may soon operate in reducing us under it.

Since, then, commerce is the foundation of our wealth, and since our power, which is naval, is built upon commerce, let us begin with taking a view of its present situation.

The increase of the trade of Britain to foreign parts, within these last fifteen years, though a very natural effect of the causes that have operated during that period, is not itself a natural increase, because the causes that produced it are uncommon, temporary, and unnatural.

The East and West India trades have been both lost to France and Holland. The French, before the revolution, had a greater share of the West India trade than ever we had, and they could undersell us in foreign markets.

The Dutch and French together had a very great share of the commerce of the East; this partly accounts for the rapid increase of English commerce since they lost theirs. Besides, the French nation itself, which formerly consumed scarcely any English manufactures, and supplied Germany, and many parts of Europe, with its own, has been employed for several years in consuming its manufactured stock, eating up its capital, and ruining its own manufactories; so that France itself, Germany, and a great portion of the continent, have been obliged to apply to Britain, both for manufactures and colonial produce, as well as for the goods that come from India.

Add to this, that capital on the continent of Europe has suffered an unexampled diminution, from a variety of causes. A great part has been consumed in France, and in all the countries into which her armies have penetrated, particularly in Holland; and that confidence, [end of page #193] which serves in place of capital, has been impaired in all countries, and ruined in many.

It has already been shewn that the want of capital prevents a poor nation from supplying itself, and furnishes a rich one with the means of supplying it, and, as it were, extorting usury from it by giving credit. The misfortunes of the continent had, by this means, all of them a direct tendency to advance the commercial prosperity of England; but still the matter does not rest even here, for the real capital that fled from the continent of Europe has, in part, taken refuge in England. We have risen, (for the moment,) by their depression; and though the advantage will be of some duration, yet we ought not to consider it as permanent. {154}

Those causes have operated, as indeed might be expected, in a most powerful manner, but that operation has already begun to cease. In such uncommon and unexampled circ.u.mstances as the present, it is impossible to forsee =sic= what may happen, yet it is scarcely possible to suppose things will remain as they are. Terror and alarm are too painful to continue their action long on the human mind; and even if the cause were not diminished, the effect would become less violent with time and custom. Again, we are not to suppose, that such times as those of 1793 and 1794 are ever to return, therefore the alarm will be diminished, new capital will rise up, and, as security of private property is now understood to be the basis of all wealth and prosperity, confidence will be restored by degrees.

The increase of trade is not then to be expected from the same causes that have of late operated with so rapid and powerful an effect: on the contrary, they may be expected so far to cease, as to occasion a diminution of our exports.

This will, however, be counteracted by some circ.u.mstances, while others will tend to augment the violence of its effects.

The trade with the American States and with Russia increase, from

{154} As one proof of capital taking refuge in England, the sudden rise of stock, during the first three years of the French revolution, may be adduced, without fear of being contradicted as to the fact, or the a.s.signed cause controverted. [end of page #194]

no temporary or fallacious cause. In the former country, population very rapidly increases, and, in the latter, wealth and civilization, which have a similar effect {155} upon the wants of a nation. These are in favour of a manufacturing country, like England.

These two are not only, then, permanent, but augmenting causes for our commerce; {156} they are causes that augment rapidly, and may, with proper care, be carried to a great extent.

The superiority in the West India trade is so far of a permanent nature, that France will never again be a formidable rival there. St. Domingo is not only lost, but probably lost for ever, while it is expected that Britain may retain her islands. This trade, then, may be set down as permanent; that is to say, that there does not seem to be any immediate cause for its decline; {157} and the government of this country is sufficiently aware of consequences not to neglect taking every precaution possible.

The East India trade does not, indeed, appear equally secure. There we are powerfully rivalled by the Americans, and the merchants of other countries; but, on the other hand, the demand for the produce of Asia is augmenting rapidly all over the continent of Europe; so that perhaps we may be able to maintain our ground, even though other nations regain part of the trade they have lost.

To remain, then, in the situation in which we are, with respect to

{155} The great augmentation of fine fertile territory, in America, will r.e.t.a.r.d the progress of manufactures and commerce in that country, by employing the capital and attention of the inhabitants on agriculture.

This may be the case for half a century, and, if England improves, the circ.u.mstances may continue to operate in favour of British manufactures for many centuries to come.

{156} The ports in the Black Sea add a new district to the commercial world, which, in course of time, must greatly increase the demand for such articles, as a civilized people consume. The fineness of the climate and of the country will enable the inhabitants to gratify the taste which civilization will bring along with it.

{157} It would be quite foreign to the end of this inquiry to examine into the interior state of the West India islands, or as to their continuing subject to Great Britain. This is entirely a political affair, unconnected with commerce, though its effects on it would be prodigious. [end of page #195]