Chapter 1087： Fair judgment (1/2)
The wheels of history are rolling forward, not changed by personal will. The black hand behind the scenes never showed up, and the Japanese government could only swallow the bitter pill.
In a sense, the final result is the same regardless of whether there is a man behind the scenes. In short, the escalation of the conflict between Japan and Russia is inevitable.
No war broke out. It was because Japan and Russia were not ready for war. Now the two governments are delaying time tacitly. Whoever completes the war preparations first will act first.
Perhaps it was to relieve the pressure of the Japanese government, or perhaps it was a pure coincidence. After Christmas in 1903, the London government issued an announcement announcing that it would withdraw from the free trade system.
No surprise, the secret negotiation between Shinra and Britain ended in failure last week.
Even Franz's proposal for the two countries to form an alliance again and jointly hold world hegemony was rejected by the British.
It’s right to think about it. If we continue to maintain the free trade system and jointly rule the world hegemony with Shinra, it is estimated that it will take less than ten years before Britain will go home to collect clothes.
As a person with vested interests, the British will not be reconciled if they don't give it a go, let alone they still have the Royal Navy.
Although the advantages of the Royal Navy are no longer obvious, the advantages are always advantages.
With the collapse of the free trade system, the struggle for hegemony between Shenluo and Britain is no longer possible to ease.
While paying close attention to the situation in the Far East, Franz also began to prepare for the next battle for hegemony.
Frankly speaking, Franz did not want to use war to seize hegemony. Unfortunately, the reality is cruel. From the time the British refused to compromise, the chariot of the Holy Roman Empire started.
As the driver of this tank, Franz can apply the brakes, but there is no way to stop the tank from moving forward.
”Frederick wrote a note to all countries and the World Free Trade Economic Summit will be held in Vienna next month to encourage all countries to impose sanctions on the British.
When necessary, the export prices of monopolistic export products to the UK can be pushed up, so that the UK market will be out of stock in a short period of time, detonating the economic crisis in advance.
Inform relevant companies in advance so that they are ready to reduce production and minimize our losses. For enterprises that have suffered heavy losses, the government will provide corresponding subsidies as appropriate. ”
Monopoly products are self-evident, except for food, they are petrochemical products. As for machinery and equipment, although the products produced by the British have poor performance, they can still be manufactured after all.
Even for food and petrochemical products, Shinra’s monopoly is not complete, as long as there is time, the British can still find a substitute.
It's a pity that the British lacked time. Before the passage of Parliament, the British government did not have that power even if it wanted to reserve related materials in advance.
The government did not reserve in advance, and private enterprises also did not prepare. According to British practice, it is possible for a policy to be linked to it for decades, and everyone would never have thought that results would come out so quickly.
Unlike the economic system of Shinra, the government can interfere in the market at any time, but the London government has no right to point fingers at domestic companies, let alone order everyone to reserve raw materials in advance.
Once the price of raw materials in the international market rises, related companies will inevitably be affected, and downstream consumption will also be greatly affected.
The implementation of trade barriers is not what Franz wanted. This is a lose-lose style of play. Although the British are not comfortable with Shinra, they will also suffer heavy losses.
Whether to kill a thousand enemies would cause 800 damage, or kill 800 enemies would damage one thousand, no one could give an answer before the incident happened.
The only certainty is that a new round of economic crisis will erupt with the collapse of the free trade system, and all export-oriented enterprises will be hit hard.
In a sense, the outbreak of the economic crisis is the countdown to the war. With the two world wars in original time and space as a template, Franz sees farther than the average person.
It is not impossible to delay the outbreak of war, but Franz can't wait.
Seeing that he has reached the age of 74, his physical and mental qualities have been greatly reduced. If he does not start a war, I guess he will not be able to lead the war.
After dealing with the British, there are still a lot of things to be done at home. A large part of these matters can only be handled by Franz himself.
In order to draw a successful end to his emperor's career, Franz must allow sufficient time to complete all this before the energy is still able to support it.
The detonation of the economic crisis is the beginning of the war, but it is the economy, not the army, that confronts first.
Frederick persuaded: ”Father, is it too fast? The country is not ready yet, and if the economic crisis is set off now, we will also lose a lot.”
As the crown prince regent, Frederick knew the economic situation in Shinra.
Since the news that Britain has withdrawn from the free trade system, domestic companies with foresight have been preparing to store grain for the winter.
It's not that everyone's ideological consciousness is high, but the state-owned enterprises and the royal consortium have made a good start. Many other capitalists have passively followed suit.
Specifically, in 1903, the major domestic enterprises of Shinra all suspend capacity expansion, reduce cargo inventory, and increase cash flow reserves.
It's just that this is not enough. In just one year, even if everyone is prepared, there is still no guarantee that they can survive the next cold winter.
The country that has been suffering from the free trade system for a long time is not just Britain. With the beginning of the British people, there are definitely not a few following.
Destruction is far easier than construction. The reality is very obvious. Before defeating Britain, don't want to re-establish a free trade system.
The duration of the market winter is at least a few years, and it may even last for more than ten years.
Franz shook his head: ”Can't wait any longer. If we don't lose out to the British, how can the Russians dare to smash the Japanese?
The Siberian Railway has not yet opened to traffic, and Russia’s military power in the Far East is no match for the Japanese at all.
Regardless of the fact that the Tsarist government launched the strategy of moving eastward, the interests of the Far East are still dispensable for the Russian Empire.
Once the frontline encounters a defeat, who can guarantee that the Russians will not cut their flesh to stop losses and directly abandon the Far East?
If the Czarist government abandons the Far East, it will continue to advance southward, for fear that the Russians will shrink back and sit and watch our game with the British.
Without pulling out this nail in advance, can you rest assured that you will fight the British? ”
”Trust” is a flaw, even if the Russian-Austrian alliance lasted for decades, Franz still couldn't believe the Russians.
There is no betrayal, it is just that the betrayal chips are not enough. For your own safety, it is better to let Teddy Bear get sick first.
...
Politics has always affected the whole body. With the collapse of the free trade system, Britain and Shinra have officially gone into opposition.
Affected by this, the ministerial mission investigating the Russian embassy case also split, making the situation in the Far East even more confusing.
But these are all important people need to consider, and they are still far from ordinary people's lives. It is the people in Tokyo who really feel the ”body”, and the situation has become increasingly tense.
Don’t say it’s a parade on the streets, even friends and family gatherings will attract the patronage of the military and police, making everyone talk cautiously.
There is no way, the trial of the International Court of Justice has already begun, and the Japanese government really does not want to make any further complications.
No matter how popular the people are, in the eyes of the Japanese government, those who attack the Russian embassy are all thugs.
There is no ruler who likes unruly people. Even if the starting point is good, the result is tragic!
If you don't kill and frighten the newcomers, who knows if a similar scene will continue in the future?
If it is the radical nature to destroy the Russian embassy today, the Shinra embassy will be destroyed tomorrow, and the British embassy will be destroyed the day after tomorrow...
Tossing all the way to death, I don't know when, I buried the foundation of Japan.
...
Since the division of the ministerial group, the presiding judge Lorelai from Switzerland, the pressure has suddenly increased.
On the one hand, he has to maintain the sanctity of the judiciary, and on the other hand, he has to be criticized by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, which makes him miserable.