Chapter 520： Robbery while fire (1/2)

The agricultural crisis is actually brewing long ago. The Russian reclamation campaign was just a trigger for the outbreak of the agricultural crisis.

After entering the 19th century, agricultural production technology developed very fast, especially the rotation cultivation technology was popularized in Europe, which greatly improved the utilization rate of land.

New production tools have been continuously developed, which has begun the era of mechanized agriculture, allowing a farmer to cultivate more land.

During this period, agricultural output also began to increase significantly. Grain production in various countries is constantly setting new records. Taking Austria as an example, the growth rate of grain production has increased by more than 3% for many years.

The population growth rate during the same period is far behind the increase in food production. The biggest benefit of increasing food production is that it allows most people to fill their stomachs. The increase in related agricultural and sideline products has also enriched the people's dining table.

In the process of population growth, the agricultural population is also increasing. Although with the development of industry, a large number of rural laborers have become workers during the process of urbanization, and the proportion of the agricultural population has been decreasing, this number has increased.

In this context, in order to obtain more income, the people spontaneously started a reclamation campaign. The Russian wasteland was not the first case, and it was still bad for Austria.

The agrarian revolution in Austria was imperfect, and the aristocracy still held a large amount of land. In order to meet the farmers' demand for land, the Austrian Balkan Peninsula was thus developed.

Compared with 1850, the area of ​​arable land in Austria has doubled. As the cake becomes larger, the domestic land problem is naturally solved.

Alexander II ’s campaign to open up wasteland was actually learning from Austria ’s successful experience. Since farmers need land, they will increase the supply of domestic land. With more land, the contradictions are naturally resolved.

In this way, excess food production capacity is unstoppable. In the course of agricultural development in Austria, the Vienna government is still deliberately guiding people to grow cash crops.

For example, in Lombardy and Venecia, the rice-to-mulberry project has been developed, and the supporting raw silk industry has also been developed; in the Bosnia and Herzegovina region, the raisin and wine industries have also developed.

These planned developments are trying to avoid excess food production capacity. However, this is also a waste of money, and the total output of grain is still rising.

If the Russian-Prussian War did not erupt, and the Russian Empire would have civil war, which would have severely damaged Russia ’s agricultural production, this crisis would have erupted years ago.

Without a large grain exporter, there has been no food shortage in Europe. Now the Russians are returning to the grain export market, the production capacity is even better than in the past, and the market can't afford it anyway.

There are only three countries in Europe that are not worried about the impact of food prices. The British are naturally one of them, otherwise they would not dare to ignite the fire.

British industrialization has been going on for a long time. The industrial population has already surpassed the agricultural population, and the proportion of agriculture in GDP has been very low.

The small-scale peasant economy collapsed early in the enclosure movement, the land was relatively centralized, and its ability to resist risks was strong. It was itself the world ’s largest importer of agricultural products. Naturally, it was not afraid of food prices falling.

The other two countries are Belgium and Monaco. The latter does not need to be known. Looking at the land area, you know that a small seaside village has no agriculture at all.

Belgium is also a food importer. The earliest industrial country on the European continent has a low industrial agricultural output value, so don't worry about being impacted.

Starting purely from an economic point of view, after the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, Austria's losses were undoubtedly the largest. As the largest exporter of agricultural products, the impact was also greatest.

Calculating the agricultural population alone, Austria's agricultural population still accounts for more than half of the total population. There is no problem in saying that Austria is an agricultural country.

However, with the development of the economy, many farmers with relatively few land actually have strong labor in their homes to work in cities.

Both farming and working, they cannot be simply regarded as farmers, or workers. In statistics, both sides are often counted.

Different provinces have different agricultural populations. In the more developed Bohemia region, the proportion of the agricultural population is already less than 40 percent; in the agriculturally developed Hungary region, the proportion of the agricultural population is as high as 70 to 80 percent.

Among them, the proportion of migrant workers also accounts for a considerable part. In some densely populated villages, up to 90% of the young labor force working in the cities.

The situation in France is even more serious. The Italian region is seriously hindered, especially in southern Italy. If the statistics of urban and rural incomes are found, there is not much difference at all, and even the income of urban workers is lower than that of farmers.

This does not mean that Italy's agriculture is well developed, it can only prove that Italy's urban economy is depressed. Although these cities developed earlier, due to limited resources, industrial development in Italy was very difficult.

This is also the main reason why the Russians moved closer to the British than to the French. The British can fear the impact of agriculture and dare to let Russian agricultural products enter, but the French cannot.

There is already a large agricultural population in France. Coupled with the economically fragile Italy, once the price of food plummets and the market is impacted, it is likely that the situation will spread.

”Grain prices are very important, and if they bravely hit the markets of other countries, the rebound will inevitably be very fierce.

Moreover, agriculture is different from industry. Even if there is an overcapacity in the market, producers will not adjust in a short time, and even output will continue to increase.

We can regulate the domestic market and guide people to reduce the area of ​​food cultivation, but it will not affect other countries. At least we have no way to reduce the output of Russian farmers, at best we can only bankrupt them.

It has knocked down agricultural production markets in various countries and established a monopoly position in the field of agricultural exports. Frankly, I am not optimistic about the success of this plan.

In this world, the area of ​​land suitable for cultivation is too large, and the market for agricultural products is too small.

Not to mention, as long as you understand the situation in Austrian Africa, everyone should know that Austria's grain production capacity can be doubled at any time if needed.

The British, the Portuguese, the Dutch, the French, they also lacked food colonies. Once we find signs that we have a monopoly on the international grain export market, blocking will inevitably occur. ”

Obviously, Prime Minister Felix is ​​a rationalist. Rather than supporting the great plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, it is more inclined to the protracted war proposed by the Minister of Finance.

With its advantages in production costs, it only needs to be slowly ground. Austria is destined to occupy an important position in the agricultural product export market.

As for the potential biggest rival, the Confederate States of America, it is not a threat at all. In the face of interest, the plantation owners will naturally make the right choice.