Volume I Part 13 (2/2)

I have since at several different times sat down to write to you fully upon the situation of things here, and upon your letter of the 11th, which I received last night. But I find it so difficult to offer any reasonable conjecture upon the probable event, and things have taken so different a turn from that which you supposed, and on which you argue, that I have thought it better to confine myself to the following facts (being all I know) on the authenticity of which you may depend. From them you will yourself collect the different circ.u.mstances which may occur, upon which you will be [enabled] to form a decision very material to your future character, honour, and happiness. If any of these should take place before I hear from you again, you may depend on the earliest notice which I can give you.

In the first place, Lord Shelburne never has made any offer whatever to Lord North.

Secondly, the coalition between Lord North and Fox is very far from being formed; so far indeed, that _I know_ they have differed, not only on loaves and fishes, but on the subject of high and responsible office, and particularly about the Treasury itself, which was not settled this morning.

Thirdly, the King is decidedly with Lord Shelburne. His opinion of Fox I apprehend not to be altered, nor his former resentment against Lord North much softened by their present conduct. Rigby and Jenkinson both voted with us: the latter avowedly excluded from the proposed arrangement.

Fourthly, it is the intention of Ministry to wait the event of another question in the House of Commons. The subject is to be resumed on Friday, when this question will probably occur. And this they do in compliance with the ----'s wishes. The Duke of Grafton totters, but has not actually resigned.

The division was very respectable on our side. Almost all the country gentlemen voted with us. Many of them are outrageous with Fox upon the idea of his coalition. Lord North's share of the 224 is computed from 160 to 170.

Our Bill was read a second time to-day, but so early, that I was not down. Percival asked some question about his idea; you have never said anything to me upon it. It is committed for this day sev'nnight; before that time, chaos will probably have taken some form; in the meantime I cannot but fear the most serious and alarming consequences from the impression which this division must make in France, Spain, and above all, in Holland.

Pray write as soon as you can, and believe me Most sincerely and affectionately yours, W. W. G.

P.S. I shall see the Speaker to-morrow.

I have delayed writing this so long, that I find it is too late to send it by the post, and it is not I think worth an express.

I will therefore keep it for your tailor, who goes to-morrow, and tells me he rides post. If so, you will get it sooner; and if anything should occur before to-morrow evening, I shall be able to state it.

20th.

I hear nothing new to-day. Lord J. Cavendish moves tomorrow, and is supposed to intend censure. If so, we shall very probably see the new alliance divided, especially if their differences continue, which I know not. I have not seen Percy, but shall to-morrow; I called to-day, but he was out.

Lord Beauchamp says he will not oppose our Bill; nor, I imagine, in this state of things, will Fox. I need not say that at this moment no business goes on, and consequently it is in vain to talk to them about the different points in your despatches.

”Non ipsa si velit Salus Servare prorsus hanc potest Rempublicam!”

Adieu, my dear brother, you shall hear from me again on Sat.u.r.day morning; but in the meantime pray let me hear from you as soon as you can.

Ever yours, W. W. G.

I just hear that the Duke of Grafton has resigned.

The King, who was not expected in town till the 19th, came up suddenly on the 18th, immediately on the receipt of the intelligence of the Ministerial defeat. On the 20th, General Cuninghame, writing to Lord Temple, informs him that the Duke of Grafton had resigned the day before, having intimated his intention to do so on the preceding Monday; that he had just learned that Mr. Fox and Lord North had adjusted their differences; and that the outline of an Administration had been actually agreed upon--the Devons.h.i.+res to have the Treasury, probably in the person of the Duke of Portland, and Fox, Chancellor of the Exchequer.

”The political world,” adds General Cuninghame, ”is in a ferment, and a few days must decide the complexion of a new Administration. Every one hopes and believes it will be on a broad bottom; and your Excellency will probably be at liberty to choose your situation.” On the next day, the same correspondent announces that Lord Shelburne ”is determined to stand the thunder of the House of Commons,” on a resolution which was to be brought forward that night, to show that the peace was inadequate. He goes on to state that the issue of the debate was doubtful, and that Lord Shelburne was by no means disposed to give up without a struggle.

”If the Opposition should be beat from there not being sufficient evidence before them, an inquiry will be inst.i.tuted. No man at this hour pretends to say how the question will be decided. One may get a beat [bet?] of hundreds at either side. So many difficulties arise in arranging a new Administration, that I now understand Lord Shelburne will not easily yield his pretensions.” In the few hours that elapsed since he had written the former letter, General Cuninghame had reason to doubt the correctness of his information respecting the validity of the agreement amongst the opponents of Government. ”I now doubt,” he observes, ”very much of the possibility of arranging Mr. Fox's and Lord North's friends in such a manner as to make their system carry the appearance of permanency.” The inconstancy of the reports in circulation reflected faithfully the uncertainty that hung over the action of all parties; and in that uncertainty lay the princ.i.p.al, perhaps the only, ground of hope that was left to Lord Shelburne.

That the negotiations in the meanwhile for a coalition had advanced to something like an intelligible point, and that the Duke of Portland looked with some confidence to the Treasury, is placed beyond all doubt by the following confidential communication, in which His Grace, in antic.i.p.ation of the establishment of the new Ministry, proposes to Lord Temple his continuance in office as Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland. It would have been so utterly inconsistent with the high character of Lord Temple to have accepted this office under circ.u.mstances which he held to be injurious to the moral influence of the party leaders, and out of which no solid or durable system of administration could be rationally expected, that it will not excite much surprise to find his Lords.h.i.+p declining the flattering offer of the Duke of Portland.

It should be remembered, in reference to Lord Temple's reply to His Grace's ”secret and confidential” communication, that the Duke of Portland had held the office of Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland under the second Rockingham Administration, and was, therefore, qualified to appreciate the inconveniences arising from frequent changes in the Government. It is to that circ.u.mstance Lord Temple alludes, when he recalls to his Grace's recollection the ”jealousy which had been felt in so many parts of Ireland at his resignation.”

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