Part 7 (2/2)

Not only was Karashar deserted by its inhabitants, but so was the whole country round about. Some, indeed, had fled to the mountains, but these were afraid to return when they saw the Chinese established in their homes. And then the conquerors followed out their usual plan by settling fresh colonists in the town. The Mongol n.o.ble, Cha-hi-telkh, was directed to move up some hundreds of the members of his tribe to occupy this important post, to restore the homes and to retill the fields; and while this work of restoration was proceeding on territory conquered by the Chinese, that through which they pa.s.sed in hostile guise was subjected to far other treatment. On the 9th of October the Chinese marched against Korla from two sides, and on that day a cavalry skirmish took place, in which fifteen of Bayen Hu's hors.e.m.e.n were slain, and two taken prisoners. From the evidence of these, who were dressed in the Khokandian garb, but were Mussulman subjects of China, being natives of Shensi, it was learnt that Bayen Hu had withdrawn with all his forces to Kucha, taking with him the produce of the country and the majority of the people. They affirmed that the small detachment to which they belonged was only a scouting party, sent out to learn what the Chinese army was doing. When the Chinese had exhausted their stock of information they beheaded them. The same day they entered Korla, which they found to be completely deserted, although not flooded. The walls remained, but many of the houses had been thrown down. Here the general was nearly reduced to a desperate plight, as the provision train, which was transported by cart and camel, did not come up, and there was the prospect of starvation compelling the victorious army to retreat. But happily the thought struck the able general, or perhaps some one gave him a hint, that there might be some stores concealed in the city which the Kashgari had been unable to carry away with them. Accordingly the whole army set to work to search the houses, and to dig into the ground in all likely places for hidden stores. Their toil was soon rewarded, and ”several tens of thousand catties' weight of food” were discovered.

As a catty weighs 1-3/4 lb., this was no slight supply for an army of men which was probably under 10,000 strong. These concerted movements of the army south of the Tian Shan placed the country as far west as Karashar in the possession of the invader. Their next advance, which they could not expect to be as unopposed as their late one, would bring them into the plain of Kashgar. No sooner had Karashar and Korla fallen into their possession than an edict was issued inviting the Mahomedan population to return to their homes, and many of them accepted the invitation. In this quarter the arms of China were not disgraced by any excesses, and moderation towards the unarmed population extenuated their severity towards armed foes.

While halting some days at Korla, Kin Shun heard that Bayen Hu was coercing the people east of Kucha at Tsedayar and other places, and compelling them to withdraw to Kucha and to destroy their crops. He at once resolved to frustrate the plan, and set out in person at the head of 1,500 light infantry and 1,000 cavalry to protect the inhabitants. By forced marches, sometimes carried on through the better part of the night, he reached Tsedayar on the 17th of October, when he learnt that Bayen Hu had driven off the whole of the population, and was already at Bugur, on the road to Kucha. At the next village to Tsedayar, a fortified post known as Yangy Shahr, he found that Bayen Hu was still ahead of him, and that he was setting fire to the villages on his line of march. Kin Shun left a portion of his infantry behind to put out the conflagration, and resolutely pressed on with the remainder of his force to Bugur. This small town had also been set on fire, but here the rapidity of the Chinese general's advance was rewarded with the news that the enemy's army, with a large number of the inhabitants, was only a short distance ahead. The rear-guard, composed of 1,000 cavalry, was soon touched, and the Kashgari, emboldened by the small numbers of the Chinese, came on to the attack in gallant fas.h.i.+on. Their charge was broken, however, by the steadiness of the Chinese infantry, armed with excellent rifles, and the cavalry performed the rest. The Kashgari left 100 slain on the field of battle and twelve prisoners. From these latter it was discovered that the main body of 2,000 soldiers was some distance on the road to Kucha, with the family of Bayen Hu and the villagers under its charge. It was too late to advance further that day, but on the next the forward movement was resumed. A large mult.i.tude--”some tens of thousands of people”--was speedily sighted by the advanced guard, but on examining these through gla.s.ses it was discovered that scarcely more than a thousand carried arms. All the troops were then brought to the front, and Kin Shun issued instructions that all those found with arms in their hands should be slain, but the others spared.

The armed portion of the Kashgarian army drew off from the unarmed, leaving in the midst the large a.s.semblage of Mussulman villagers who were being carried off to Kucha. These were sent to the rear by order of Kin Shun, and distributed in such of the villages as were most convenient. In the meanwhile a sharp fight took place a few miles in the rear of the old position, near a village called Arpa Tai. The action appears to have been well contested, but the superior tactics and weapons of Kin Shun's small army prevailed; and the Mussulman army retreated with considerable loss and in great disorder. Kin Shun followed up his success with marvellous rapidity and restless energy, while the Kashgarian troops fled incontinently to Kucha, abandoning the people and the country to the invader. The unfortunate inhabitants implored with piteous entreaties the mercy of the conqueror, and it is with genuine satisfaction we record the fact that Kin Shun informed them of their safety, and bade them have no further alarm.

By this time it is probable that the Chinese army had been largely reinforced from the rear, for we have now come to a more arduous portion of the enterprise, the attack against Kucha. When the Chinese appeared before its walls they found that a battle was proceeding there between the Kashgarian soldiers and the townspeople, who refused to accompany them in a further retreat westward. On the appearance of the Chinese army, the Kashgarian force evacuated the city, and joined battle with it on the western side of Kucha. The Chinese at once attacked them, at first with little success; and a charge of the cavalry, numbering some four or five thousand men, was only repulsed with some difficulty. But the cannon of the Chinese were playing with remarkable effect upon the Mahomedans, and the Chinese reserves were every moment coming upon the ground. The infantry were at last ordered to advance, under cover of a heavy artillery fire, and the cavalry made a charge at a most opportune moment. The whole army then broke and fled in irretrievable confusion, leaving more than a thousand of their number on the ground. Their general, Ma-yeo-pu the Chinese called him, was wounded early in the day, but, although stated to be a noted man, it is impossible to recognize his ident.i.ty under the Chinese appellation. This was certainly the most sanguinary and the best-contested action of the whole war. The numbers on each side were probably about 10,000 men, and it was won as much by superior tactics and skill as by brute force and courage. All the movements of the Chinese were characterized by remarkable forethought, and evinced the greatest ability on the part of the general and his lieutenants, as well as obedience, valour, and patience on the part of his soldiers. The rapid advance from Kuhwei to Karashar, the forced march thence to Bugur, the capture of Kucha, the forbearance of the conqueror towards the inhabitants, all combine to make this portion of the war most creditable to China and her generals, to Kin Shun in particular. The reason given in the Official Report for the Kashgarian authorities attempting to carry off the population was that the rebels wished in the first place to deprive the invading force of all a.s.sistance, thus making further pursuit a work of difficulty, and in the second place, to ingratiate themselves with the new Pahia (probably Bacha) of Kashgar, Kuli Beg, by delivering this large ma.s.s of Turki-Mussulmans into his hands. Bayen Hu was, therefore, certainly not Hakim Khan. It is tolerably clear that he must have been either a Tungan refugee or a subordinate of Beg Bacha's.

A depot was formed at Kucha, and a large body of troops remained there as a garrison; but the princ.i.p.al administrative measures were directed to the task of improving the position of the Turki-Mussulman population.

A board of administration was inst.i.tuted for the purpose of providing means of subsistence for the dest.i.tute, and for the distribution of seed-corn for the benefit of the whole community. It had also to supervise the construction of roads, and the establishment of ferry boats, and of post-houses, in order to facilitate the movements of trade and travel, and to expedite the transmission of mails. Magistrates and prefects were appointed to all the cities, and special precautions were taken against the outbreak of epidemic or of famine. All these wise provisions were carried out promptly, and in the most matter-of-fact manner, just as if the legislation and administration of alien states were the daily avocations of Chinamen. There is no reason to believe that in the vast region from Turfan to Kucha the Chinese have departed from the statesmanlike and beneficent schemes which marked their re-installation as rulers; and whatever harshness or cruelty they manifested towards the Tungani rebels and the Kashgarian soldiers was more than atoned for by the mildness of their treatment of the people.

On the 19th, or more probably the 22nd of October, Kin Shun resumed his forward movement, encountering no serious opposition. His first halt was at a village called Hoser, where he halted for one night, which he employed in inditing the report to Pekin, which described the successes and movements of the previous three weeks. At the next town, known as Bai, Kin Shun halted to await the arrival of the rear-guard, under General Chang Yao. This force came up before the close of October, and the advance against Aksu was resumed. Up to this point the chief interest centred in the army south of the Tian Shan, and in the achievements of Kin Shun. Our princ.i.p.al, in fact our only, authority for this portion of the campaign is the _Pekin Gazette_.

We have now to describe the movements of the Northern Army, which was under the immediate command of Tso Tsung Tang, and which was operating in the north of the state, in complete secrecy. That general had under him, at the most moderate computation, an army of 28,000 men. By some it was placed at a higher figure; but a St. Petersburg paper, on the authority of a Russian merchant, who had been to Manas, computed it to be of that strength. It was concentrated in the neighbourhood of Manas, and along the northern skirts of the Tian Shan; and also on the frontier of the Russian dominions in Kuldja. To all appearance this army was consigned to a part of enforced inactivity, since it was impossible to enter Kuldja, and thus proceed by their old routes through the pa.s.ses of Bedal or Muzart. But it was not so; the travels of Colonel Prjevalsky in the commencement of 1877 had not been un.o.bserved by the Chinese, and it was a.s.sumed that where a Russian officer with his Cossack following could go, there also could go a Chinese army. By those little-known pa.s.ses, which are made by the Tekes and Great Yuldus rivers, the Chinese army, under Tso Tsung Tang, crossed over into Kashgaria; and it is probable that the two armies joined in the neighbourhood of Bai. It was by this stroke of strategy on the part of Tso Tsung Tang that the Chinese found themselves before the walls of Aksu, with an overwhelming army, at the very sight of which all thought of resistance died away from the hearts of the Mussulman peoples and garrisons. Tso Tsung Tang appeared before the walls of Aksu, the bulwark of Kashgar on the east, and its commandant, panic stricken, abandoned his post at the first onset. He was subsequently taken prisoner by an officer of Kuli Beg, and executed. The Chinese then advanced on Ush Turfan, which also surrendered without a blow. As we said, the Chinese have not published any detailed description of this portion of the war, and we are consequently unable to say what their version is of those reported atrocities at Aksu and Ush Turfan, of which the Russian papers have made so much. There is no doubt that a very large number of refugees fled to Russian territory, perhaps 10,000 in all, and these brought with them the tales of fear and exaggerated alarm. We may feel little hesitation in accepting the a.s.sertion as true, that the armed garrisons were slaughtered without exception; but that the unarmed population and the women and children shared the same fate we distinctly refuse to credit.

There is every precedent in favour of the a.s.sumption that a more moderate policy was pursued, and there is no valid reason why the Chinese should have dealt with Aksu and Ush Turfan differently to Kucha or Turfan. The case of Manas has been greatly insisted upon by the agitators on this ”atrocity” question; but there is the highest authority for a.s.serting that only armed men were ma.s.sacred there. This the Chinese have always done; it is a national custom, and they certainly did not depart from it in the case of the Tungani and Kashgar.

But there is no solid ground for convicting them of any more heinous crime, even in the instances of Manas and Aksu, which are put so prominently forward.

Early in December the last move of all began against the capital, and on the 17th of that month the Chinese took it by a _coup de main_. Beg Kuli Beg, according to one account, fought a battle outside the town, in which he was defeated; according to another report, he had withdrawn to Yarkand, whence he fled to Russian territory, when he heard of the fall of Kashgar. It is more probable that he resisted the Chinese attack on Kashgar, for he certainly reached Tashkent, in company with the Kirghiz Chief, Sadic Beg, who was wounded in that battle. With the fall of Kashgar the Chinese reconquest of Eastern Turkestan was completed, and the other cities, Yangy Hissar and Yarkand, speedily shared the same fate. Khoten and Sirikul also sent in formal promises of subjection. But the capture of Kashgar virtually closed the campaign. No further resistance was encountered, and the new rulers had only to begin the task of reorganization. When Kashgar fell the greater portion of the army, knowing that they could expect no mercy at the hands of the Chinese, fled to Russian territory, and then spread reports of fresh Chinese ma.s.sacres, which probably only existed in their own imagination.

There can be no doubt that the Chinese triumph has been thorough, and that it will be many years before the people of Eastern Turkestan will have again the heart to rebel against their authority. The strength of China has been thoroughly demonstrated, and the vindication of her prestige is complete. Whatever danger there may be to the permanence of China's triumph lies rather from Russia than from the conquered peoples of Tian Shan Nan Lu; nor is there much danger that the Chinese laurels will become faded even before an European foe. Tso Tsung Tang and his lieutenants, Kin Shun, who has since fallen into disgrace,--perhaps he had excited the envy of his superior--and Chang Yao, accomplished a task which would reflect credit on any army and any country. They have given a l.u.s.tre to the present Chinese administration which must stand it in good stead, and they have acquired a personal renown that will not easily depart. The Chinese reconquest of Eastern Turkestan is beyond doubt the most remarkable event that has occurred in Asia during the last fifty years, and it is quite the most brilliant achievement of a Chinese army, led by Chinamen, that has taken place since Keen-Lung subdued the country more than a century ago. It also proves, in a manner that is more than unpalatable to us, that the Chinese possess an adaptive faculty that must be held to be a very important fact in every-day politics in Central Asia. They conquered Kashgar with European weapons, and by careful study of Western science and skill. Their soldiers marched in obedience to instructors trained on the Prussian principle; and their generals manoeuvred their troops in accordance with the teachings of Moltke and Manteuffel. Even in such minor matters as the use of telescopes and field gla.s.ses we find this Chinese army well supplied. Nothing was more absurd than the picture drawn by some over-wise observer of this army, as consisting of soldiers fantastically garbed in the guise of dragons and other hideous appearances. All that belonged to an old-world theory. The army of Eastern Turkestan was as widely different from all previous Chinese armies in Central Asia as it well could be; and in all essentials closely resembled that of an European power. Its remarkable triumphs were chiefly attributable to the thoroughness with which China had in this instance adapted herself to Western notions.

With the flight of Beg Kuli Beg to Tashkent closed the career of the house of the Athalik Ghazi in Kashgar. Whatever turn events may take in this portion of Central Asia, whatever schemes there may be formed in Khokand, or elsewhere, of challenging anew the Chinese domination, it will not be round the banner of Kuli Beg that the ousted Khokandian officials will rally. By his flight in the hour of danger, by the hesitation which marked all his movements, and by the murder of his brother in cold blood, this prince, of whom much at one time was expected, has irretrievably ruined both his career and his reputation.

If on any future occasion Russia should seek to play the part played of old by Khans of Khokand in the internal history of Kashgar, it will not be Kuli Beg whom they will put forward as their puppet. His old rival, Hakim Khan, stands a much better chance than he, more especially if it be true that he is the representative of the Khojas, being the son of Buzurg Khan, as many have a.s.serted. But the fact remains clear, that all the dreams of Yakoob Beg of founding a personal dynasty in Eastern Turkestan are now dispelled beyond all prospect of realization.

CHAPTER XIV.

THE CHINESE FACTOR IN THE CENTRAL ASIAN QUESTION.

The overthrow of the Tungani, and the reconquest of Kashgaria, have not completed the task that lay before Chinese generals and soldiers in Central Asia. Great and remarkable as those triumphs were, the Chinese are not satisfied with them, because there yet remains more work to be done. They have restored to the Emperor Tian Shan Nan Lu, but so long as the Russians hold Kuldja, Tian Shan Pe Lu is only half won back.

Moreover, so long as a great military power is domiciled in Kuldja, China's hold on the country west of Aksu must be only on sufferance. As of old, the Chinese so often reconquered Kashgar, when it had shaken off the Chinese rule, from Ili, so might the Russians at their good pleasure play the same part against the Chinese. In short, the Russians remaining in Ili would neutralize all the advantages that China had secured by her recent military success. But, although there is a foundation of well grounded apprehension at the strategical advantages of Russia, at the root of China's demand for the surrender of Kuldja, that is not the only cause, or even the princ.i.p.al one, for the Chinese making it. Of all their Central Asian possessions, Ili was the most cherished, and it was to recover that region more especially that Tso Tsung Tang undertook those arduous campaigns which have so far ended in triumph, and which were designed for, among other purposes, the purpose of giving that Viceroy a prestige and influence that would enable him to play the rival to Li Hung Chang. Ili was their metropolis in Central Asia, and its fall marked the wide difference that there was between the Tungan-Khoja rising of 1862-63 and all its predecessors. The fall of Ili meant the fall of Chinese power, and Chinese power cannot be held to be completely restored so long as Ili remains in alien hands. On this point the Chinese are very keen.

Russia, on the other hand, hesitates to hand over Ili for various reasons. In the first place, it is not certain that China has _permanently_ reconquered Eastern Turkestan, nor is it clear that the Imperial exchequer will be able to bear a continual strain upon it for Central Asian expenditure. Moreover there is the unknown quant.i.ty of the rivalry of Li Hung Chang and Tso Tsung Tang, and whatever influence the latter may have with the army and the ruling caste on account of his Mantchoo blood, the former holds the purse in his hands, and can at any moment paralyse Chinese activity and strength in Central Asia. The Russians also, whatever rash promises they may have given at Pekin--and they certainly did promise to retrocede Kuldja to China, whenever the Chinese should be strong enough to return to Central Asia--formally (_teste_ General Kolpakovsky's proclamation) annexed Kuldja ”in perpetuity.” In the eyes of the people of Central Asia, that proclamation defines Russia's tenure of Kuldja, and not the vague promise that was uttered in the ears of the authorities at Pekin. Now Russia knows this as well as we do; and she is aware that no strict adherence to her word of honour will induce the people of Western, as well as of Eastern, Turkestan to believe that she retrocedes Kuldja for any other cause than fear of the Chinese. The Khokandians, the Bokhariots, as well as the Kirghiz, the Calmucks, and the Kashgari, will all argue that Russia restores Kuldja not through any desire to fulfil her engagements, but simply because she cannot decline to fulfil them without engaging in a war with China, and her compliance with the demand would then be construed as an admission of her disinclination to encounter China in the field. In fact, even if Russia had promptly restored Kuldja, she would not have secured the credit she might have claimed for her good faith, and she would have had no guarantee that the Chinese would have rested content with the cession of Ili proper and not gone on to claim, in a moment of military arrogance, the restoration of the Naryn district, which China at a period of weakness had herself ceded to Russia more than twenty years ago. Then, besides these objections to the surrender of Kuldja on political grounds, there are commercial and fiscal reasons why Russia should be loth to restore this province. Not only has it become highly prosperous and thickly populated under Russian rule, but it has also been raised into one of the most fiscally remunerative portions of the Russian possessions in Central Asia, and then there is its admirable frontier in the Tian Shan, which places the future trade with the western parts of China more at its disposal, than it is through the Semipalatinsk and Chuguchak route, and, above all, it effectually dispels all sense of real danger from attack.

The Chinese would find that to force the Tian Shan range into Kuldja would be a task almost impossible for them, and they would be compelled to enter the province from the north by Karkaru. By so doing, they would leave the whole of their flank and line of communication exposed to an attack with telling effect both at Manas and in Kashgar, and with a scientific foe such as Russia, no sane Chinaman could dream of attacking Kuldja except in the most overwhelming force. It may be as well to sketch here the history of Russia's rule in Kuldja from 1871 to the present time, before proceeding with the consideration of the questions aroused by the difficulty between Russia and China.

When an independent government had been founded in Kuldja in 1866, a ruler of the name of Abul Oghlan was placed upon the throne. He appears to have been a Tungan, and he certainly was a truculent and self-confident potentate. He refused to abide by the stipulations of the Treaties of Kuldja and Pekin, and in petty matters as in great, set himself in direct opposition to Russia. For five years he pursued his career undisturbed by exterior influences, and during that period he tolerated the inroads of his subjects into Russian territory, urged the Kirghiz tribes beyond his frontier to revolt, and forbade Russian merchants to enter his dominions. On a small scale, he aped the manners subsequently adopted by Yakoob Beg. But he was only a minor and insignificant despot. His people groaned under his tyranny, and the 75,000 slaves within his dominions were only too anxious to be relieved from their bondage by any deliverer whatsoever. The state of Kuldja, as administered by Abul Oghlan, was pre-eminently one that would fall to pieces at the first rude shock from outside. For five years, or thereabouts, the Russian authorities at Vernoe, Naryn, and in Semiretchinsk put up with his veiled hostility; but when it became evident that his state was on the eve of falling into divers fragments, of which Yakoob Beg would, probably, come in for the lion's share, the Russians, whose patience had become well-nigh exhausted, resolved not to be forestalled in Kuldja, either by the Athalik Ghazi, or the Tungani Confederation. A kind of _ultimatum_ was presented to Kuldja, in which Abul Oghlan was given a last chance of retaining power, if he consented to ratify the terms of the past treaties with China. He does not appear to have distinctly refused to do so, when he was required to enter into this agreement with Russia. But he prevaricated and delayed, until at last the patience of the Muscovite authorities was quite exhausted. They resolved to destroy the government of Abul Oghlan, to annex Kuldja, and to bring their frontier down to the Tian Shan.

In May, 1871, Major Balitsky crossed the river Borodshudsir, which formed the boundary between the two countries, and, at the head of a small detachment, advanced some distance into the dominions of Abul Oghlan. His force, however, was small, and, after a brief reconnaissance, he retired within Russian territory. Six weeks afterwards the main body under General Kolpakovsky crossed the frontier into Kuldja and marched on the capital. That invading army consisted of only 1,785 men and sixty-five officers. At first the forces of Abul Oghlan offered a brave resistance, but the Russian cannon and rifles carried everything before them; and on the 4th of July the ruler presented himself at the Russian outposts. When taken before General Kolpakovsky, he said, ”I trusted to the righteousness of my cause, and to the help of G.o.d. Conquered, I submit to the will of the Almighty. If any crime has been committed, punish the sovereign, but spare his innocent subjects.” The next day the Russian general entered the capital after a campaign that had only lasted eight or nine days. Protection was promised to all who would lay down their arms, and the army of Abul Oghlan was disbanded. Abul Oghlan was pensioned, and Orel was appointed as his place of residence. Kuldja or ”Dzungaria,” as it is called in the proclamation, was annexed ”in perpetuity,” and became the Russian sub-governors.h.i.+p of Priilinsk. There can be no doubt but that the Russian occupation of Kuldja was an unqualified benefit to the inhabitants of that region. The declaration of the abolition of slavery alone released seventy-five thousand human beings from a life of hards.h.i.+p and hopelessness. The return of trade, which had become stagnant, ensured the prosperity and advancement of the active portion of the community, and during the seven years Russia has ruled in Kuldja, the people have steadily progressed in moral and material welfare. The population has during the same period remarkably increased, and the valleys of the Ili teem with a population at once contented and prosperous. The rule of Russia in Kuldja is the brightest spot in her Central Asian administration. The Chinese in demanding the retrocession of Kuldja labour under the one disadvantage that they come to oust a beneficent rule. This disadvantage is made the greater by the bad name the Chinese have earned in Kashgar and the Tungan country, by the atrocities they are said to have committed. Those who will take the trouble to scan the matter carefully, and to consult the _Pekin Gazette_, as much as they do the _Tashkent_, will find that these atrocities are for the most part the creation of panic, and of malicious observers, and in the few cases where Chinese vindictiveness overcame military discipline, as at Manas and Aksu, we have clear evidence that women and children were spared. The _Tashkent Gazette_ has laboured strenuously, and not in vain, to disseminate the report of Chinese atrocities; and one London paper has so far a.s.sisted the object of the Russian press in raising a feeling of indignation against China, on account of these reported ma.s.sacres in Eastern Turkestan, that it has placed translations of these charges before the English reader, and, on the authority of the _Tashkent Gazette_, has indicted and summarily convicted the Chinese of the grossest acts of inhumanity. We would venture to suggest, that in common fairness to the Chinese this journal should place before its readers the temperately worded and dignified reports that have appeared in the _Pekin Gazette_ of those events upon which the _Tashkent Gazette_ has commented so indignantly.

As we said, the Chinese are fully resolved to regain Ili. They may not be able to induce Russia easily to surrender it, yet they will not despair. In all probability they will fail altogether to re-acquire it by diplomatic means, yet they will not omit to employ all the artifices that are sanctioned by modern diplomacy. There have been rumours that China intended handing over to Russia a strip of territory in Manchuria, which would give to the Russian harbour of Vladivostock a land communication with the forts on the Amoor. But this rumour had no solid foundation, and the latest intelligence goes to show that China's successes beyond Gobi, instead of making her moderate in the north, have given her confidence sufficient to arouse her into a state of opposition to further encroachments on the part of Russia in that direction. It is now said that Russia demands pecuniary indemnification for the money she has expended in raising Kuldja to its present highly prosperous condition; and at a first glance nothing could seem fairer, nor do we think that the Chinese would have raised objections to the payment of a moderate sum. But the sum demanded by the Russians is far from moderate.

The exact amount has not been mentioned, but the Chinese declare that it exceeds the total cost of the campaign in the north-west, and that certainly was not less than two millions sterling. This is, of course, too exorbitant, and is only put forward as a reason for declining to abide by her former agreement, and to give her diplomatists a _locus standi_ in their discussions with the Chinese representatives. A Chinese Emba.s.sy has been authorized to proceed to St. Petersburg, and to endeavour to effect an understanding with Russia upon the Kuldja question; but it does not appear to have started, and the real settlement lies in the hands of Tso Tsung Tang and General Kaufmann. The latest report is that the former has demanded afresh the restoration of Kuldja; the Russian reply is awaited with eagerness and some anxiety. In the meanwhile the Chinese have suffered a local reverse of no significance at the hands of a chief of Khoten, and their power does not seem to extend south of Yarkand. But they are hurrying up reinforcements, and 20,000 fresh troops had reached Manas some weeks ago. They have also an extensive recruiting ground amongst the Calmucks, and their position of Chuguchak might be of great strategical importance. If the Kuldja question give rise to a Russo-Chinese war, the Chinese are sufficiently numerous and sufficiently prepared to task the capacity of an army of 20,000 Russians; and it is quite certain there are not 5,000 in Kuldja at present. But the Kuldja question, despite the prominence it has attained, is only one, if the most important and pressing, of those questions that are raised and suggested by the appearance of the Chinese in Central Asia. More especially is this the case if, as can scarcely be doubted, the Russians refuse to restore Kuldja; yet the Chinese, knowing the strength of their adversary, shall hesitate to attack where they cannot but recognize that the penalties of failure must be immense. In that event the Kuldja question will long remain unsolved, and for a time perhaps it will be forgotten. But the Chinese will not forget, nor will they condone the offence. But whatever may be the interval, and however great the delay, the Kuldja question will continue to remain a most important portion of Central Asian politics, and must, so long as it is unsettled, operate in a manner adverse to the interests of Russia. The Chinese need only maintain their camps at Chuguchak, Karakaru, Manas, Aksu, Ush Turfan and Kashgar, and slowly bring up reinforcements from Kansuh and from the Calmuck country, to render Russia's hold on Kuldja dangerously insecure. In fact, in this matter the Chinese have the game in their own hands, and can play a waiting game; whereas Russia can only hope to profit by precipitation on the part of Tso Tsung Tang. If the Chinese refuse to hold any intercourse with the faithless Russians, and simply content themselves with the declaration that they cannot re-enter into political or commercial relations with them until Kuldja is retroceded, Russia can never rest tranquil either in Kuldja, Naryn, or Khokand. Above all, so long as she is occupied in Western Asia as she is at present, she could never dare to cross the path of China, and enter upon a war which would rage from Vladivostock and the Amoor to Kuldja and Kashgar. Therefore the settlement of the Kuldja question is not such an easy matter as might be supposed; nor does it find Russia so strong or China so weak as might have been expected. But after all, as we have just said, the Kuldja question is not the only one suggested by the appearance of the Chinese in Eastern Turkestan. There is the far wider one raised by the appearance of the Chinese as a factor in the great Central Asian question. The three great Asiatic Powers have now converged upon a point; what is to be the result?

The only way to be in a position to venture upon a surmise as to the future, is to realize in its full significance the lessons of the past.

What have been the mutual relations between England, Russia, and China?

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