Part 1 (1/2)
Outlines of a Mechanical Theory of Storms.
by T. Ba.s.snett.
PREFACE.
On presenting to the public a work of this novel character, overstepping, as it does, the barriers erected by modern systems to the further progress of knowledge, a few words of explanation may not be inappropriate. Early imbued with a desire to understand the _causes_ of natural phenomena, the author devoured with avidity the interpretations contained in the elementary works of orthodox science, until reason and observation rendered him dissatisfied with the repast. To him it appeared that there was an evident tendency in scholastic instruction, to make the knowledge of nature inaccessible to the many, that the world might be made more dependent on the few; while many of the _established principles_, on which the learned rested, seemed to be at variance with the simplicity and consistency of truth. Thus situated, he ventured to think for himself, and looking back on the history of the past, and finding so many cases in which the philosophy of to-day was supplanted by a different system on the morrow, he was led to suspect the possibility of future revolutions, and was thus determined to be no longer embarra.s.sed by previous systems, nor deterred by opinions however learned, which conflicted with a rational recognition of the mechanical nature of all physical phenomena.
The science of meteorology, to which the following pages are devoted, is, and always has been, a confessedly complex subject; and on this account, any suggestions and facts which observation gleans,--no matter how humble the source may be, should not be denied a hearing by those professedly engaged in the pursuit of truth. Step by step, the author became more and more confirmed in his doubts of the soundness of many modern theories; and in 1838 he had attained a position which enabled him to allege in the public prints of the day, that there did exist certain erroneous dogmas in the schools, which stood in the way of a fuller development of the causes of many meteorological phenomena. This annunciation was made in general terms, and no notice was taken of it.
Subsequently, he forwarded to the British a.s.sociation of Science, then convened at Birmingham, a communication of similar tenor; and at a later date still, a more particular statement of the advantages of his discoveries to the navigator and agriculturist, was sent to the British admiralty. The first of these communications was treated with silent contempt; the last elicited some unimportant reply. In 1844 a memorial was presented to Congress, accompanied with a certified copy of _predictions_ of the weather, written several weeks before the event, and attested in due form by two impartial witnesses; but neither did this result in any inquiry as to its truth. During the time since elapsed, he has been engaged in pursuits which prevented him from pressing the subject elsewhere, until the spring of 1853, he brought his theory under the notice of the Smithsonian Inst.i.tution. This led to a correspondence between himself and the gentlemanly Secretary of the Inst.i.tution, whose doubts of the truth of his allegations were expressed with kindness, and whose courtesy was in strange contrast with the conduct of others. In the communications which he forwarded to that Inst.i.tution, he gave a detailed statement of the difficulties he had met with, and expressed the hope that an Inst.i.tution, created for the purpose of increasing and diffusing knowledge, would feel justified in lending the influence of its name to facilitate the completion of a theory which was yet undeniably imperfect. In view of this, a test was proposed.[1] ”Give us, for example, a prediction of the weather for one month in each season of the year 1854, for the City of Was.h.i.+ngton.” This test the author refused, for the reason that he did not consider it necessary to wait so long; but he informed the Secretary of the Inst.i.tution, that he would prepare an outline of his theory, which would enable him to decide upon the merits of the discoveries claimed. This outline is contained in the following pages. During the summer of 1853 he called upon Professor Henry, then at Chicago, with his ma.n.u.script; but a sudden indisposition prevented that gentleman from having it read.
He, however, strongly recommended its publication from such impressions he then received.[2] This the author had resolved on, from a sense of duty to the world at large, although the promise was rather of prospective loss than of present benefit. The peculiar form under which the theory appears, is, therefore, a result of the circ.u.mstances above stated, and of the author's present inability to enter into the minute details of a subject, which embraces in its range the whole visible creation.
In extending the theory to other phenomena, he has only fearlessly followed out the same principles which have conducted him to a knowledge of a disturbing cause, to which atmospheric storms owe their origin, and in doing so he has conferred with no one. For whatever of merit or of blame may therefore justly attach to these views, he alone is responsible. If he has charged the scientific with inconsistency, or with sometimes forgetting that the truth of their unnecessarily abstruse investigations depends on the truth of the data, he at least is conscientious; for he is too well aware that to provoke an unfavorable verdict by contending against such fearful odds, is not the surest way to either wealth or fame, or even to an acknowledgment of at least _the mite_, which he cannot but feel that he has contributed to the treasury of knowledge. That the scientific organisations of the day do tend to curb the aberrations of a fanciful philosophy, cannot be denied; but at the same time there is engendered such a slavish subordination as checks the originality of thought, and destroys that perfect freedom from the trammels of system, so necessary to success in the pursuit of truth. Of such an influence the author explicitly a.s.serts his entire independence.
In thus introducing his theory, the reader is forewarned that he will not find it dressed in the fascinating garb of the popular literature of the day, whose chief characteristic is to promise much when possessing little. It is, however, a plant of the author's own raising, unpropped, unpruned, with none of the delicate tendrils or graceful festoons of the trellissed vine; yet he flatters himself that its roots are watered by the springs of truth, and hopes that he who is in quest of _that_, will not find, amidst its many cl.u.s.ters, any fruit to set his teeth on edge.
FOOTNOTES:
[1] Extract from a letter from Professor Henry.
[2] This gentleman kindly offered to contribute from his own private means, to forward the publication, but he could do nothing officially without submitting the ma.n.u.script to three different censors. He who claims a new discovery, will seldom be satisfied to have it judged by men who are engaged in the same investigations, however pure and honorable they may be. Is this Inst.i.tution adopting the best plan of aiding truth, in its struggles against error? Should any man sit as judge in his own trial? If there had been a powerful Inst.i.tution to stand between Galileo and the scientific of his day, his doctrines would not have been condemned, and the world would have been fifty years more in advance.
MECHANICAL THEORY OF STORMS.
SECTION FIRST.
PRESENT STATE OF METEOROLOGY.
The present state of the science of which we are about to treat, cannot be better defined than in the words of the celebrated Humboldt, who has devoted a long life to the investigation of this department of Physics.
He says: ”The processes of the absorption of light, the liberation of heat, and the variations in the elastic and electric tension, and in the hygrometric condition of the vast aerial ocean, are all so intimately connected together, that each individual meteorological process is modified by the action of all the others. The complicated nature of these disturbing causes, increases the difficulty of giving a full explanation of these involved meteorological phenomena; and likewise limits, or _wholly precludes_ the possibility of that predetermination of atmospheric changes, which would be so important for horticulture, agriculture, and navigation, no less than for the comfort and enjoyment of life. Those who place the value of meteorology in this problematic species of prediction, rather than in the knowledge of the phenomena themselves, are firmly convinced that this branch of science, on account of which so many expeditions to distant mountainous regions have been undertaken, has not made any very considerable progress for centuries past. The confidence which they refuse to the physicist they yield to changes of the moon, and to certain days marked in the calender by the superst.i.tion of a by-gone age.”
The charge thus skilfully repelled, contains, however, much truth; there has been no adequate return of the vast amount of labor and expense thus far devoted to this branch of knowledge. And it is not wonderful that the popular mind should expect a result which is so much in accordance with the wants of mankind. Who is there whose happiness, and health, and comfort, _and_ safety, and prosperity, may not be more or less affected by reducing to law, the apparently irregular fluctuations of the weather, and the predetermination of the storm? To do this would be the crowning triumph of the age; and the present theory has pioneered the way for its speedy accomplishment.
ORIGINAL CONDITION OF THE EARTH.
That the present order of things had a beginning, is taught by every a.n.a.logy around us, and as we have the glaring fact forced upon us, that our globe has experienced a far higher temperature on its surface than obtains at present, and moreover, as it is demonstrated beyond a cavil, that the interior is now of far higher temperature than is due to solar radiation, we are justified in concluding, not only that the condition of the interior of our globe is that of fusion, but that its original temperature was far higher than at present; so that the inference is allowable that there has been a time when the whole globe was _perhaps_ in this state. But why should we stop here? There are three states of matter, the solid, the fluid, and the gaseous; and with this pa.s.sing glance at the question, we will jump at once to the theory of La Place,--that not only our own globe, but the whole solar system, has been once in the nebulous state.
In justice to himself, the author ought to remark, that he had reasoned his way up to this starting point, before even the name of La Place had reached his ears. He makes the remark in order to disclaim any desire to appropriate that which belongs to another; as he may innocently speak of things hereafter, the idea of which has occurred to others. It is not his intention here to say a word _pro_ or _con_ on the nebular hypothesis; it is sufficient to allude to the facts, that the direction of rotation and of revolution is the same for all the planets and satellites of our system; and that the planes on which these motions are performed, are nearly coincident. That this concordance is due to one common cause, no one acquainted with the theory of probabilities will pretend to deny.
GREAT OBJECT OF LA PLACE.
The science of Astronomy occupies a pre-eminent rank in the physical circle, not only on account of that dignity conferred upon it in the most remote antiquity, or as being the grand starting point--the earliest born of science--from whence we must contemplate the visible creation, if we would reduce its numerous details into one harmonious whole; but also on account of its practical fruits, of the value of which modern commerce is an instance. Accordingly we will glance at its past history. In the earliest ages there was no doubt a rational view entertained of the movements of the planets in s.p.a.ce. From the Chaldeans to the Arabs, a belief prevailed, that s.p.a.ce was filled with a pure ethereal fluid, whose existence probably did not rest on any more solid foundation than a.n.a.logy or tradition. One hundred years after Copernicus had given to the world the true arrangements of our planetary system, Descartes advanced his theory of vortices in the ethereal medium, in which the planets were borne in orbits around the sun, and the satellites around their primaries. This idea retained its ground with various additions, until the Geometry of Newton reconciled the laws of Kepler with the existence of a power pertaining to matter, varying inversely as the squares of the distances, to which power he showed the weight of terrestrial bodies was owing, and also the revolution of the moon about the earth. Since Newton's day, those deviations from the strict wording of Kepler's laws, have been referred to the same law, and the avowed object of the author of the ”Mechanique Celeste,” was to bring all the great phenomena of nature within the grasp of a.n.a.lysis, by referring them to one single principle, and one simple law. And in his Introduction to the Theory of the Moon, he remarks: ”Hence it incontestibly follows, that the law of gravitation is the sole cause of the lunar inequalities.”
BESSEL'S OPINION.