Part 5 (1/2)
On their side, by the imposition of a heavy tax called the _Wehrbeitrag_ or supplementary defence tax, they had, in 1913, increased their army by a number of army corps. On the other hand, the law for three years' military service voted in France had not yet gone into effect, nor had the law for universal military service voted by the Belgian Chambers. Undoubtedly the Germans based great hopes upon the Bagdad railway which was to carry their influence to the East, and even threatened the rule of England in Egypt and India. Undoubtedly there was talk, too, of a Slav railroad to run from the Danube to the Adriatic which would cut off Germany from access to the Southern Sea. Francis Deloisi, the Frenchman, in his book published before the great war, called ”De la Guerre des Balkans a la Guerre Europeenne,”
says, ”In a word, the present war (Balkan) is the work of Russia, and the Danube Asiatic railway is a Russian project. If it succeeds, a continuous barrier of Slav peoples will bar the way to the Mediterranean of the path of Austro-German expansion from the Black Sea to the Adriatic. But here again the Romanoffs confront the Hapsburgs, the Austro-Serb conflict becomes the Austro-Russian conflict, two great groups are formed, and the Balkan conflict becomes the European conflict.”
Another reason for an immediate war was the loan by France to Russia made on condition that additional strategic railways were to be constructed by the Russians in Poland. Although this money had been received, the railways had not been constructed at the time of the opening of the Great War. Speaking of this situation, the Russian General Kuropatkin, in his report for the year 1900, said, ”We must cherish no illusions as to the possibility of an easy victory over the Austrian army,” and he then went on to say, ”Austria had eight railways to transport troops to the Russian frontier while Russia had only four; and, while Germany had seventeen such railways running to the German-Russian frontier, the Russians had only five.” Kuropatkin further said, ”The differences are too enormous and leave our neighbours a superiority which cannot be overcome by the numbers of our troops, or their courage.”
Comparing the two armies, he said, ”The invasion of Russia by German troops is more probable than the invasion of Germany by Russian troops”; and, ”Our Western frontier, in the event of a European war, would be in such danger as it never has known in all the history of Russia.”
Agitation by workmen in Russia was believed in Germany to be the beginning of a revolution. Illuminating figures may be seen in the gold purchase of the German Imperial Bank: in 1911, 174,000,000 marks; in 1912, 173,000,000 marks; but in 1913, 317,000,000 marks.
There was a belief in Germany that the French nation was degenerate and corrupt and unprepared for war. This belief became conviction when, in the debates of the French Senate, Senator Humbert, early in 1914, publicly exposed what he claimed to be the weakness and unpreparedness of France.
Prince Lichnowsky, the German Amba.s.sador in London, certainly reported to his government that England did not wish to enter the war. He claims now that he did not mean that England would not fight at all events, but undoubtedly the German Foreign Office believed that England would remain out of the war. The raising of the Ulster army by Sir Edward Carson, one of the most gigantic political bluffs in all history, which had no more revolutionary or military significance than a torchlight parade during one of our presidential campaigns, was reported by the German spies as a real and serious revolutionary movement; and, of course, it was believed by the Germans that Ireland would rise in general rebellion the moment that war was declared. In the summer of 1914 Russia was believed to be on the edge of revolution.
As I have said in a previous chapter, the movement against militarism, culminating in the extraordinary vote in the Reichstag against the government at the time of the Zabern Affair, warned the government and military people that the ma.s.s of Germans were coming to their senses and were preparing to shake off the bogy of militarism and fear, which had roosted so long on their shoulders like a Prussian old-man-of-the-sea. The Pan-Germans and the Annexationists were hot for war. The people alive could recall only three wars, the war against Denmark in 1864, which was settled in a few days and added the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein to the Prussian crown, and the war of 1866 in which Bavaria, Baden, Wurttemberg, Hesse-Darmstadt, and Saxony were defeated, when the Austrian kingdom of Hanover disappeared and the territories of Hesse-Ca.s.sel and Na.s.sau, and the free city of Frankfort were added to Prussia. This war, from its declaration to the battle of Koniggratz in which the Austrians were completely defeated, lasted only two weeks. In 1870 France was defeated within a month and a half after the opening of hostilities; so that the Kaiser was implicitly believed when, on the first day of the war, he appeared on the balcony of the palace and told the crowds who were keen for war, that ”before the leaves have fallen from the trees you will be back in your homes.” The army and all Germany believed him and believed, too, that a few short weeks would see the destruction of France and the consequent seizure of her rich colonies; that Russia could then be struck a good quick blow before she could concentrate her army and resources; that England would remain neutral; and that Germany would consequently become, if not the actual owner, at least the dictator of the world. Some one has since said that the Emperor must have meant pine trees.
Working ever in the dark, either owning or influencing newspapers, the great munition and arms factory of the Krupp's insidiously poisoned the minds of the people with the microbe of war.
Prince Lichnowsky, the German Amba.s.sador to London, called upon me often after the outbreak of the war, and insisted that he had correctly reported the sentiments of England in saying that England did not want war. After his return to Germany the Germans quite unfairly treated him as a man who had failed and seemed to blame him because England had taken the only possible course open to her and ranged herself on the side of France and Russia.
The dedication at Leipzig, in the year 1913, of the great monument to celebrate what is called the ”War of Liberation,” and the victory of Leipzig in the War of the Nations, 1813, had undoubtedly kindled a martial spirit in Germany. To my mind, the course which really determined the Emperor and the ruling cla.s.s for war was the att.i.tude of the whole people in the Zabern Affair and their evident and growing dislike of militarism. The fact that the Socialists, at the close of the session of the Reichstag, boldly remained in the Chamber and refused to rise or to cheer the name of the Emperor indicated a new spirit of resistance to autocracy; and autocracy saw that if it was to keep its hold upon Germany it must lead the nation into a short and successful war.
This is no new trick of a ruling and aristocratic cla.s.s. From the days when the patricians of Rome forced the people into war whenever the people showed a disposition to demand their rights, autocracies have always turned to war as the best antidote against the spirit of democracy.
CHAPTER VI
AT KIEL JUST BEFORE THE WAR
Kiel, situated on the Baltic, on the eastern side of the peninsula of Jutland near the Baltic entrance of the Kiel Ca.n.a.l, is the princ.i.p.al naval centre of Germany.
When the Germans decided to build up a great fleet the Emperor used every means to encourage a love of yachting and of the sea, and endeavoured to make the Kiel Week a rival of the week at Cowes, the English yachting centre.
With this end in view, the rich Germans were encouraged and almost commanded to build and race yachts; and Americans and others who visited Kiel in their yachts were entertained by the Emperor in an intimacy impossible if they had come to Berlin merely as tourists, residing in a hotel.
In June, 1914, we went to Kiel as guests of Allison Armour of Chicago, on his yacht, the _Utowana_. I was detained by business in Berlin and Mrs. Gerard preceded me to Kiel. I arrived there on Sat.u.r.day, the twenty-seventh of June, and that night went with Armour to dine with the Emperor on board the Emperor's yacht, _Hohenzollern_.
In the harbour were a fair number of German yachts, mostly sailing yachts, taking part in the races; the fine old yacht of Lord Bra.s.sey, _The_Sunbeam_, and the yacht of the Prince of Monaco, in which he conducts his scientific voyages. A great English fleet, comprising some of the most powerful dreadnoughts, had also arrived, sent as an earnest of the good will and kindly feeling then supposed to exist between Great Britain and Germany.
The redoubtable von Tirpitz was present on a German battles.h.i.+p, and the Hamburg American Line had an old transatlantic steamer, the _Deutschland_, rechristened the _Victoria_Luise_, filled with guests, most of whom were invited on a hint from the Emperor.
At dinner on the _Hohenzollern_ a number of English people were present. The Kaiser had on one side of him the wife of the British Admiral, Lady Maud Warrender, and on the other side, the Countess of March, whose husband is heir to the Duke of Richmond.
I sat between Princess Munster and the Countess of March, and after dinner the Emperor drew me over to the rail of the s.h.i.+p, and talked to me for some time. I wish that diplomatic etiquette would permit me to reveal what he said, but even in war time I do not think I ought to violate the confidence that hospitality seals. However important and interesting, especially to the tame Socialists of Germany, I do not give this conversation with the Emperor, nor the conversation with him and Colonel House at the _Schrippenfest_, because I was his guest. Conversations with the Emperor which I had on later occasions were at official audiences and to these the same rule does not apply. He also invited me to sail with him in his yacht, the _Meteor_, in the races from Kiel to Eckernfjord on the coming Tuesday.
[Ill.u.s.tration: THE EMPEROR'S RACING YACHT, AND OTHERS, AT KIEL.]
[Ill.u.s.tration: THE ”HOHENZOLLERN”.]
Sunday afternoon Prince Henry and his wife, who reside in the castle at Kiel, were to give an afternoon reception and garden party; but on arriving at the gates we were told that the party would not take place. After going on board the _Utowana_, Frederick W. Wile, the celebrated correspondent of the _London_Daily_Mail_, ranged up alongside in a small launch and informed us that the Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austrian throne, and his wife had been a.s.sa.s.sinated at Sarajevo.
There was much rus.h.i.+ng to and fro in fast launches, the Emperor himself being summoned from the race which was in progress. That night we dined on board the yacht of the Prince of Monaco. All the diplomats and notables whom I met during the afternoon and evening seemed to think that there was no chance that the tragedy at Sarajevo would lead to war. The next morning the Emperor left early for Berlin, but expressly directed that the festivities and races at Kiel should be carried out as arranged.
Monday afternoon there was a _Bierabend_ in the large hall of the yacht club at Kiel. The Emperor was to have presided at this dinner, but his place was taken by his brother, Prince Henry.