Part 15 (1/2)
I should say things looked ill everywhere, and unless we can make the Emperor of Russia fear a convulsion in France, and determine to recede from some of his stipulations with Turkey to satisfy the rest of Europe, we shall have war, and war under the most unfavourable circ.u.mstances--that is, if Austria be not as pusillanimous as she may be weak, for she ought never to consent to the establishment of the Russians on the Danube.
The only line for the Turks to pursue is to promise everything; to endeavour to perform everything, and to withdraw to Asia, leaving the rest of Europe to settle who shall have Constantinople. _Now_ they could not do that, as they are too weak; but six months hence they may.
We dine with the Duke on Wednesday--and shall then, I suppose, determine what we are to do.
_October 7._
Cabinet at 3. All present except Lord Melville.
Aberdeen read a paper he had written before the peace was known, the object of which was to show that the Ottoman Empire was dissolved, and that it could not be reconst.i.tuted; that our views with regard to Greece should now change with circ.u.mstances, and that we should endeavour to make it a substantive state. To Turkey it could no longer signify whether Greece had a more extended or more limited line of frontier, and our desire should be to place a fit man upon the throne. France is willing to propose in the Conference that to Turkey should be offered the alternative of a Greece with extended limits under Suzerainete, &c., according to the Protocol of March 22, or a Greece with narrower limits, entirely independent.
The Duke said we must first have satisfaction for the insertion of the Article in the treaty of peace which bound Turkey to the Protocol of March 22; Russia, as a party to the Treaty of London, having no right to settle that treaty herself. Next, we should insist on an armistice between the Greeks and Turks.
We must recollect that Turkey had bound herself to acquiesce in the decision of the Conference upon the Greek Treaty--that is, to defer to our mediation. Could we, as mediators, propose to Turkey to cede Attica, Negropont, and other possessions she now holds? and would we willingly bring the frontiers of the Greek state into contact with our Ionian Islands?
If Greece were to have a sovereign, Prince Philip of Hesse Homburg would be the best man for us--Austria would prefer him. France admitted that the wishes of Austria ought to be consulted.
France, however, rather wished for Prince Charles of Bavaria. Russia for a Duke of Saxe-Weimar.
Aberdeen seemed to think there would be no great difficulty in carrying our point, and having Prince Philip of Hesse Homburg.
Peel said he thought we could not allow a treaty such as that signed by Turkey to pa.s.s without a remonstrance on our part. We referred to a letter of Dudley's, and to Aberdeen's recent instruction to Lord Heytesbury, and likewise to the various declarations of moderation put forth by the Emperor Nicholas. Several ways were started of expressing our opinion--a sort of circular to the Powers which signed the Treaty of the Congress--a declaration to Parliament.
The Duke suggested a remonstrance to the Emperor Nicholas to be communicated in the first instance only to Russia.
This seems likely to be adopted, but we are to have another Cabinet to- morrow.
In whatever we do we must endeavour to keep Austria out of the sc.r.a.pe, for there is nothing the Russians would like so much as the opportunity of marching to Vienna.
Not only it would be romantic for us alone to go to war to maintain the balance of power, but it would, in this case, be absurd indeed, for, if our armies had driven the Russians out of Turkey, we could not reconst.i.tute the Turkish Empire. It is dissolved in its own weakness.
Great dissatisfaction was expressed, and justly, at the conduct of Lord Heytesbury, who has been humbugged by the Russians all along.
The King has run up a bill of 4,000 for clothes in six months. All the offices of the Household, except the Chamberlain's, which has 1,900 in hand, are falling into arrear, and if there should be an arrear upon the whole civil list, it must come before Parliament.
Fitzgerald gives a very bad account of trade generally.
The King does not like us better than he did, and the Duke of c.u.mberland means to keep his son in England, and educate him here, taking the 6,000 a year. He wants to drive the Government to make him Viceroy of Hanover.
The Cabinet dined with the Duke.
_October 8._
Cabinet at 3. A great deal of conversation of which the result was that a remonstrance should be made to Russia on the subject of the terms of the peace. This remonstrance will temperately but strongly, more by statement of facts than by observations, show that the peace is not such as the Emperor had given us reason to expect he would require, and that it in reality threatens the existence of the Turkish Empire; that the destruction of that Empire would seriously affect the peace of Europe by changing the relative position of the several States.
Aberdeen wants a guarantee of the territorial possessions of Turkey, not of its Government. [Footnote: It is observable that this guarantee seems to have said nothing of the internal system of government, and so far to have been unconditional. It would therefore have gone considerably beyond the Anglo-Turkish Convention of 1878. It would also have applied to Europe as well as Asia. It is a commentary on the statement of Mr. Gladstone, in later days a colleague of Lord Aberdeen, that no statesman whom he had known in former times would ever have listened to the idea of such an engagement.] I think no one seems much inclined to agree with him. Such a guarantee would impose obligations without conferring rights upon us. It would be a guarantee which would give rise to infinite complications, and which would embarra.s.s us very much.
Without a guarantee we may succeed in bringing the great States to an understanding that the distribution of the Turkish territories, in the event of the falling to pieces of that State, must be a subject for the decision of a Congress.